Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
40.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W24-7 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:82% | |
| 5 | 9/26 | Win prob:86% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:79% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:81% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:65% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:59% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:60% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:5% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:68% | |
| 12/14 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 7.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 22.9% | 81.7% |
| 7-2 | 31.3% | 39.8% |
| 6-3 | 24.1% | 7.9% |
| 5-4 | 11.0% | 0.1% |
| 4-5 | 3.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 40.4% (+0.3%) | 39.9% (-0.2%) | |
| 40.0% (-0.1%) | 40.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 39.7% (-0.4%) | 40.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 40.2% (+0.1%) | 40.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 40.1% (-0.0%) | 40.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 39.6% (-0.5%) | 40.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 39.9% (-0.2%) | 40.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 17.1% (-23.0%) | 45.1% (+5.1%) | |
| 39.0% (-1.1%) | 43.0% (+2.9%) | |
| 40.4% (+0.3%) | 39.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 40.1% (-0.0%) | 40.2% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
97.5%
4.7%
100.0%
3.9%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
0.1%
84.4%
<0.1%
77.7%
0.1%
77.4%
<0.1%
76.7%
<0.1%
75.0%
<0.1%
69.6%
0.1%
67.4%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
82.7%
16.9%100.0%
2.8%100.0%
2.9%100.0%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.4%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
0.9%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
1.1%78.2%
0.6%77.7%
2.5%76.8%
<0.1%76.6%
0.9%76.1%
1.9%76.1%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.5%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%71.9%
2.1%67.7%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
53.5%
27.5%100.0%
2.0%89.3%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%82.8%
0.8%82.6%
<0.1%82.0%
0.7%81.0%
<0.1%80.6%
0.6%79.7%
0.6%79.1%
0.6%78.5%
0.4%78.1%
1.8%77.4%
0.6%77.1%
<0.1%77.0%
1.3%77.0%
1.8%76.0%
1.3%75.8%
0.5%73.2%
1.6%71.1%
1.5%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.9%
0.2%21.1%
0.3%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
0.3%18.3%
0.2%17.8%
0.2%17.8%
0.5%17.1%
0.7%17.0%
0.5%16.7%
0.4%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
0.6%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
0.6%14.9%
0.1%14.8%
0.4%14.7%
0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
0.5%13.2%
1.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
0.4%12.1%
0.4%12.1%
0.3%12.0%
1.4%12.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.0%
1.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
29.0%
20.3%80.7%
0.4%79.7%
0.5%77.1%
1.3%77.0%
0.3%77.0%
0.4%75.0%
0.9%71.3%
1.1%42.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%25.5%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.5%
0.2%22.3%
0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.7%
0.4%20.2%
0.5%19.8%
0.1%19.6%
0.1%18.9%
0.1%18.8%
0.1%18.2%
0.1%17.6%
0.3%17.5%
0.4%16.3%
0.3%16.0%
0.3%15.6%
<0.1%15.3%
0.3%15.0%
0.4%14.9%
0.2%14.8%
0.2%14.7%
0.5%14.7%
0.4%14.7%
0.9%14.6%
0.3%14.4%
0.2%14.3%
0.4%14.3%
<0.1%14.2%
0.3%13.9%
0.2%13.6%
0.1%13.5%
0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.1%
0.3%13.0%
0.3%12.8%
0.1%12.6%
0.9%12.5%
0.4%12.5%
0.3%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
0.3%11.6%
0.3%11.3%
0.4%10.6%
1.0%10.5%
0.7%10.1%
1.0%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.2%
0.7%7.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15