RiceOwls

1-2 T3rd (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsSam HoustonSHSU	L14-34
2	9/07	vsTexas SouthernTXSO	W69-7
3	9/14	@HoustonHOU	L7-33
4	9/21	@ArmyARMY	Win prob:18%
5	9/28	vsCharlotteCLT	Win prob:69%
7	10/12	vsUTSAUTSA	Win prob:39%
8	10/19	@TulaneTULN	Win prob:11%
9	10/26	@UConnCONN	Win prob:55%
10	11/02	vsNavyNAVY	Win prob:37%
11	11/08	@MemphisMEM	Win prob:8%
13	11/23	@UABUAB	Win prob:41%
14	11/30	vsSouth FloridaUSF	Win prob:28%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0%	100.0%
7-1	0.1%	100.0%
6-2	0.7%	55.8%
5-3	4.4%	2.2%
4-4	15.0%	0%
3-5	28.7%	0%
2-6	31.1%	0%
1-7	16.7%	0%
0-8	3.3%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

51.0%

21.6%

17.6%

5.9%

3.9%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
WyomingWYO@North TexasUNT	0.5% (-0.1%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@LouisianaUL	0.6% (+0.0%)	0.5% (-0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@IndianaIU	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
Utah StateUSU@TempleTEM	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
Florida AtlanticFAU@UConnCONN	0.6% (+0.0%)	0.5% (-0.1%)
East CarolinaECU@LibertyLIB	0.6% (+0.1%)	0.5% (-0.0%)
Houston ChristianHCU@UTSAUTSA	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
RiceRICE@ArmyARMY	2.3% (+1.7%)	0.2% (-0.4%)
MemphisMEM@NavyNAVY	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.7% (+0.1%)
TulsaTLSA@Louisiana TechLT	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
MiamiMIA@South FloridaUSF	0.6% (+0.0%)	0.5% (-0.0%)

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

56.9%

0.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

88.9%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

78.6%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

71.4%

<0.1%

71.4%

<0.1%

70.0%

<0.1%

68.8%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

61.1%

<0.1%

58.3%

<0.1%

54.2%

<0.1%

51.6%

<0.1%

50.0%

0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

45.5%

<0.1%

38.2%

<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com