Navy

NavyMidshipmen

2-0 T1st (1-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

8.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

NavySchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/31
vsBucknellBUCK
W49-21
29/07
vsTempleTEM
W38-11
49/21
vsMemphisMEM
Win prob:27%
59/28
@UABUAB
Win prob:63%
610/05
@Air ForceAF
Win prob:35%
810/19
vsCharlotteCLT
Win prob:84%
910/26
vsNotre DameND(N)
Win prob:3%
1011/02
@RiceRICE
Win prob:63%
1111/09
@South FloridaUSF
Win prob:33%
1211/16
vsTulaneTULN
Win prob:36%
1411/29
@East CarolinaECU
Win prob:41%
12/14
vsArmyARMY(N)
Win prob:42%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

NavyRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.2%
100.0%
8-1
2.1%
93.3%
7-2
9.1%
45.3%
6-3
21.1%
12.3%
5-4
29.3%
0.2%
4-5
24.1%
0%
3-6
11.3%
0%
2-7
2.7%
0%
1-8
0.2%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Navy CCG Opponents

if Navy makes the CCG

MemphisMemphis
45.0%
ArmyArmy
21.3%
TulaneTulane
18.8%
South FloridaSouth Florida
7.5%
East CarolinaEast Carolina
7.3%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

NavyThis Week's Impact

Game
NavyCCG OddsAway
NavyCCG OddsHome
WyomingWYO@North TexasUNT
9.2%
(+0.3%)		8.7%
(-0.2%)
TulaneTULN@LouisianaUL
8.9%
(+0.0%)		8.9%
(-0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@IndianaIU
9.3%
(+0.3%)		8.9%
(-0.0%)
Utah StUSU@TempleTEM
9.0%
(+0.1%)		8.8%
(-0.1%)
FL AtlanticFAU@UConnCONN
8.9%
(-0.0%)		9.0%
(+0.1%)
East CarolinaECU@LibertyLIB
8.9%
(-0.0%)		8.9%
(+0.0%)
Houston ChristianHCU@UT San AntonioUTSA
8.7%
(-0.2%)		8.9%
(+0.0%)
RiceRICE@ArmyARMY
11.3%
(+2.4%)		8.4%
(-0.5%)
MemphisMEM@NavyNAVY
4.1%
(-4.8%)		21.9%
(+13.0%)
TulsaTLSA@Louisiana TechLT
9.0%
(+0.1%)		8.9%
(-0.0%)
Miami FLMIA@South FloridaUSF
8.9%
(+0.0%)		8.9%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

NavyLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Navy CCG Probability
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
98.5%
0.1%
Notre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Army
100.0%
<0.1%
Tulane
100.0%
<0.1%
Memphis
100.0%
<0.1%
Air Force
100.0%
<0.1%
East Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
Rice
100.0%
<0.1%
UAB
100.0%
<0.1%
South Florida
83.3%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
89.6%
0.9%
Notre DameUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre Dame
100.0%
0.1%
ArmyNotre Dame
100.0%
0.1%
CharlotteNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmy
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmySouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotte
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre Dame
95.7%
<0.1%
Notre DameSouth Florida
94.8%
0.1%
Notre DameRice
91.4%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulane
90.2%
0.1%
ArmyTulane
88.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphis
84.6%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre Dame
83.9%
0.2%
ArmyMemphis
80.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceRice
75.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast Carolina
66.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceTulane
60.0%
<0.1%
RiceSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaSouth Florida
42.9%
<0.1%
East CarolinaMemphis
38.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaRice
33.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTulane
33.3%
<0.1%
South FloridaUAB
33.3%
<0.1%
MemphisSouth Florida
23.1%
<0.1%
MemphisTulane
12.5%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
58.5%
4.8%
Air ForceArmyNotre Dame
100.0%
0.2%
Air ForceArmyRice
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRice
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmySouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyCharlotte
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteRice
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceRiceTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameUAB
98.6%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameSouth Florida
97.9%
0.2%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre Dame
97.7%
0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameSouth Florida
96.7%
0.2%
Air ForceNotre DameRice
96.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre Dame
95.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre Dame
94.5%
0.2%
Air ForceNotre DameTulane
90.7%
0.2%
ArmyNotre DameTulane
90.7%
0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre Dame
90.0%
0.2%
Air ForceArmyEast Carolina
90.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNotre Dame
88.4%
0.3%
Air ForceArmyMemphis
80.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyTulane
75.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaUAB
75.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteNotre DameRice
66.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteNotre DameUAB
62.5%
<0.1%
ArmySouth FloridaUAB
60.0%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceTulane
60.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceSouth Florida
54.4%
<0.1%
CharlotteNotre DameSouth Florida
51.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceSouth FloridaUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaRice
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaRice
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaTulane
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteTulane
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameRice
43.9%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulaneUAB
42.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceUAB
42.1%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameUAB
40.5%
<0.1%
Notre DameSouth FloridaUAB
39.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteNotre DameTulane
35.3%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisTulane
35.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteMemphisNotre Dame
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisRice
33.3%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisRice
33.3%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisUAB
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteSouth Florida
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaUAB
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisUAB
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaSouth Florida
30.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteEast CarolinaNotre Dame
29.4%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre DameUAB
29.1%
0.1%
MemphisNotre DameSouth Florida
28.6%
0.4%
MemphisNotre DameRice
28.0%
0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameSouth Florida
27.5%
0.2%
ArmySouth FloridaTulane
27.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameSouth FloridaTulane
26.6%
0.2%
Notre DameRiceTulane
25.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceSouth FloridaTulane
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceTulaneUAB
25.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameTulane
24.9%
0.2%
ArmyEast CarolinaMemphis
23.1%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaSouth Florida
22.2%
<0.1%
East CarolinaMemphisNotre Dame
20.5%
0.3%
Air ForceRiceSouth Florida
20.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaTulane
20.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisSouth Florida
17.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisTulane
16.7%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisSouth Florida
15.8%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre DameTulane
13.8%
0.3%
Air ForceEast CarolinaMemphis
4.8%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
35.9%
9.6%
Air ForceArmyCharlotteNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyCharlotteEast Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameUAB
99.0%
0.1%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameRice
98.3%
0.1%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameSouth Florida
93.4%
0.3%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaNotre Dame
92.7%
0.2%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameTulane
87.9%
0.3%
Air ForceArmyMemphisNotre Dame
87.0%
0.4%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre DameUAB
70.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyCharlotteTulane
66.7%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRiceUAB
59.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyRiceSouth Florida
53.8%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre DameRice
51.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre DameRice
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteNotre DameRice
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaRice
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyCharlotteMemphis
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceSouth Florida
49.3%
0.1%
ArmyCharlotteNotre DameSouth Florida
48.8%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteNotre DameTulane
48.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceUAB
47.9%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRiceSouth Florida
46.7%
0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteEast CarolinaNotre Dame
46.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphisUAB
46.2%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameSouth FloridaUAB
44.9%
0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameRice
44.8%
0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameUAB
42.9%
0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre DameUAB
41.5%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteNotre DameUAB
40.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameUAB
39.4%
0.1%
ArmyCharlotteMemphisNotre Dame
38.3%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameSouth FloridaUAB
37.7%
0.1%
Air ForceArmySouth FloridaUAB
37.5%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameRice
37.0%
0.1%
ArmyCharlotteEast CarolinaNotre Dame
36.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameTulaneUAB
36.0%
0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameRice
34.7%
0.2%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceTulane
33.6%
0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphisRice
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre DameSouth Florida
32.3%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTulaneUAB
30.8%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRiceTulane
28.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameTulane
27.3%
0.3%
ArmyEast CarolinaMemphisNotre Dame
27.2%
0.3%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameSouth Florida
27.2%
0.3%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameUAB
26.3%
0.2%
Air ForceNotre DameSouth FloridaTulane
26.3%
0.4%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre DameTulane
26.2%
0.2%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre DameSouth Florida
26.2%
0.3%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameSouth Florida
26.2%
0.7%
ArmyNotre DameSouth FloridaTulane
25.3%
0.3%
Air ForceArmyMemphisSouth Florida
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaUAB
25.0%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameSouth Florida
24.7%
0.5%
Air ForceCharlotteMemphisNotre Dame
23.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaMemphisNotre Dame
22.8%
0.4%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre DameTulane
21.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyRiceTulane
20.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaTulane
18.2%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameTulane
17.8%
0.4%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameTulane
13.4%
0.6%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaMemphis
13.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphisTulane
12.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmySouth FloridaTulane
11.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaSouth Florida
6.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameSouth FloridaUAB
1.9%
0.1%
CharlotteEast CarolinaMemphisNotre Dame
1.8%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceSouth FloridaTulane
1.7%
0.1%
CharlotteMemphisNotre DameTulane
1.7%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre DameRiceSouth Florida
1.0%
0.2%
East CarolinaNotre DameRiceSouth Florida
0.9%
0.1%
MemphisNotre DameSouth FloridaUAB
0.5%
0.2%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

NavyCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com