UABBlazers

1-2 T3rd (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsAlcorn StateALCN	W41-3
2	9/07	@UL MonroeULM	L6-32
3	9/14	@ArkansasARK	L27-37
5	9/28	vsNavyNAVY	Win prob:37%
6	10/05	vsTulaneTULN	Win prob:20%
7	10/12	@ArmyARMY	Win prob:19%
8	10/19	@South FloridaUSF	Win prob:18%
10	11/02	vsTulsaTLSA	Win prob:69%
11	11/09	vsUConnCONN	Win prob:70%
12	11/16	@MemphisMEM	Win prob:8%
13	11/23	vsRiceRICE	Win prob:59%
14	11/30	@CharlotteCLT	Win prob:55%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.0%	100.0%
7-1	0.1%	100.0%
6-2	1.3%	46.8%
5-3	6.9%	1.0%
4-4	20.1%	0%
3-5	31.5%	0%
2-6	26.8%	0%
1-7	11.3%	0%
0-8	1.9%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

50.7%

20.0%

18.7%

6.7%

4.0%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
WyomingWYO@North TexasUNT	0.8% (+0.0%)	0.8% (+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@LouisianaUL	0.8% (+0.0%)	0.8% (-0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@IndianaIU	0.7% (-0.1%)	0.8% (+0.0%)
Utah StateUSU@TempleTEM	0.8% (+0.0%)	0.8% (-0.0%)
Florida AtlanticFAU@UConnCONN	0.8% (-0.0%)	0.9% (+0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@LibertyLIB	0.8% (-0.1%)	0.8% (+0.0%)
Houston ChristianHCU@UTSAUTSA	0.8% (-0.1%)	0.8% (+0.0%)
RiceRICE@ArmyARMY	1.1% (+0.2%)	0.8% (-0.1%)
MemphisMEM@NavyNAVY	0.8% (-0.1%)	1.0% (+0.1%)
TulsaTLSA@Louisiana TechLT	0.8% (-0.0%)	0.8% (+0.0%)
MiamiMIA@South FloridaUSF	0.8% (+0.0%)	0.8% (-0.0%)

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

49.2%

1.0%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

71.9%

<0.1%

71.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

62.5%

<0.1%

60.9%

<0.1%

58.3%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

53.8%

<0.1%

53.8%

<0.1%

51.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

48.6%

<0.1%

47.5%

0.1%

45.0%

<0.1%

43.4%

0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

36.4%

<0.1%

35.7%

<0.1%

26.8%

0.2%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com