Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-15
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Boston CollegeBC | 1-0 | 2-1 | 4.2% | |
| T1 |  SyracuseSYR | 1-0 | 2-0 | 0.7% | |
| T1 |  VirginiaUVA | 1-0 | 2-1 | 0.1% | |
| 4 |  Georgia TechGT | 1-1 | 3-1 | 1.8% | |
| T5 |  MiamiMIA | 0-0 | 3-0 | 48.5% | |
| T5 |  ClemsonCLEM | 0-0 | 1-1 | 47.1% | |
| T5 |  LouisvilleLOU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 32.4% | |
| T5 |  SMUSMU | 0-0 | 2-1 | 21.9% | |
| T5 |  Virginia TechVT | 0-0 | 2-1 | 15.9% | |
| T5 |  North CarolinaUNC | 0-0 | 3-0 | 9.3% | |
| T5 |  DukeDUKE | 0-0 | 3-0 | 7.3% | |
| T5 |  CaliforniaCAL | 0-0 | 3-0 | 4.7% | |
| T5 |  NC StateNCSU | 0-0 | 2-1 | 3.4% | |
| T5 |  PittsburghPITT | 0-0 | 3-0 | 2.4% | |
| T5 |  Florida StateFSU | 0-2 | 0-3 | 0.4% | |
| T5 |  Wake ForestWAKE | 0-1 | 1-2 | <0.1% | |
| T5 |  StanfordSTAN | 0-0 | 1-1 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 48.5%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 48.5% (+0.1%) | 48.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 48.5% (+0.0%) | 48.2% (-0.3%) | |
| 48.4% (-0.1%) | 48.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 48.4% (-0.0%) | 48.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 52.0% (+3.5%) | 47.9% (-0.6%) | |
| 47.9% (-0.6%) | 48.8% (+0.3%) | |
| 49.0% (+0.5%) | 48.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 51.1% (+2.7%) | 47.6% (-0.8%) | |
| 48.2% (-0.3%) | 48.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 48.3% (-0.2%) | 48.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 46.7% (-1.8%) | 49.2% (+0.7%) | |
| 48.4% (-0.0%) | 48.5% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiamiMIA | 99.9% | 90.5% | 32.8% | 0.5% | 48.5% |
| ClemsonCLEM | 99.7% | 84.8% | 19.5% | 0.1% | 47.1% |
| LouisvilleLOU | 100% | 96.2% | 35.9% | 0.6% | 32.4% |
| SMUSMU | 99.3% | 78.2% | 16.3% | 0.1% | 21.9% |
| Virginia TechVT | 100% | 89.2% | 25.0% | 0.3% | 15.9% |
| North CarolinaUNC | 98.4% | 66.3% | 10.4% | <0.1% | 9.3% |
| DukeDUKE | 100% | 89.8% | 31.8% | 0.4% | 7.3% |
| CaliforniaCAL | 100% | 79.4% | 13.0% | <0.1% | 4.7% |
| Boston CollegeBC | 99.3% | 87.2% | 27.0% | 0.3% | 4.2% |
| NC StateNCSU | 100% | 77.5% | 16.0% | 0.1% | 3.4% |
| PittsburghPITT | 100% | 95.4% | 43.7% | 0.8% | 2.4% |
| Georgia TechGT | - | 99.2% | 46.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% |
| SyracuseSYR | 100% | 83.1% | 21.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| Florida StateFSU | - | - | 68.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| VirginiaUVA | - | 85.7% | 47.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Wake ForestWAKE | - | 100% | 31.8% | 0.7% | <0.1% |
| StanfordSTAN | - | 100% | 24.4% | 0.6% | <0.1% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ClemsonCLEM(0-0) | 13.4% | 32.5% | 31.9% | 16.7% | 4.7% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.3 |
| MiamiMIA(0-0) | 11.1% | 29.5% | 32.5% | 18.8% | 6.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 6.1 |
| LouisvilleLOU(0-0) | 3.7% | 17.9% | 31.7% | 28.3% | 13.8% | 4.0% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.5 |
| SMUSMU(0-0) | 3.6% | 16.9% | 30.6% | 28.3% | 14.9% | 4.7% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.5 |
| Virginia TechVT(0-0) | 1.3% | 9.3% | 25.0% | 32.1% | 22.1% | 8.4% | 1.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.0 |
| North CarolinaUNC(0-0) | 1.4% | 8.5% | 21.6% | 29.6% | 23.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| CaliforniaCAL(0-0) | 0.3% | 3.4% | 13.3% | 27.0% | 29.7% | 18.7% | 6.4% | 1.1% | <0.1% | 4.3 |
| DukeDUKE(0-0) | 0.3% | 3.3% | 12.3% | 24.0% | 28.2% | 20.6% | 8.9% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 4.1 |
| NC StateNCSU(0-0) | 0.1% | 2.1% | 9.9% | 23.4% | 31.0% | 22.7% | 8.9% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 4.0 |
| Boston CollegeBC(1-0) | 0.1% | 1.8% | 9.0% | 23.1% | 32.2% | 23.7% | 8.8% | 1.3% | - | 4.0 |
| PittsburghPITT(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 13.8% | 27.4% | 30.3% | 18.1% | 5.3% | 0.6% | 3.4 |
| Georgia TechGT(1-1) | - | 0.3% | 3.0% | 13.1% | 28.6% | 32.8% | 18.3% | 3.9% | - | 3.4 |
| SyracuseSYR(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 10.1% | 24.5% | 34.5% | 23.4% | 5.1% | - | 3.2 |
| Florida StateFSU(0-2) | - | - | 0.4% | 4.5% | 16.9% | 31.4% | 30.0% | 14.3% | 2.5% | 2.6 |
| VirginiaUVA(1-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.9% | 9.4% | 26.9% | 39.0% | 22.5% | - | 2.3 |
| Wake ForestWAKE(0-1) | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.9% | 5.4% | 18.4% | 33.5% | 31.3% | 10.6% | 1.8 |
| StanfordSTAN(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.2% | 12.7% | 29.8% | 36.6% | 17.1% | 1.5 |
Data from 2024-09-15