Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W62-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W49-14 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:76% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:12% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:65% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:87% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:47% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:34% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:89% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:82% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:59% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 17.9% | 96.2% |
| 6-2 | 31.7% | 35.9% |
| 5-3 | 28.3% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 13.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 4.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 32.5% (+0.1%) | 32.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.5% (+0.1%) | 32.1% (-0.3%) | |
| 32.7% (+0.3%) | 32.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.1% (-0.3%) | 32.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 34.3% (+1.9%) | 32.1% (-0.3%) | |
| 31.9% (-0.5%) | 32.7% (+0.3%) | |
| 31.6% (-0.8%) | 32.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 14.5% (-17.9%) | 38.0% (+5.5%) | |
| 32.1% (-0.3%) | 32.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 32.9% (+0.5%) | 32.1% (-0.3%) | |
| 33.9% (+1.5%) | 31.8% (-0.6%) | |
| 32.4% (+0.0%) | 32.3% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
98.8%
3.4%
100.0%
1.9%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
99.0%
<0.1%
98.5%
<0.1%
96.4%
0.1%
96.1%
0.5%
94.8%
0.3%Any 2 losses
86.8%
13.6%100.0%
1.3%100.0%
<0.1%98.6%
0.4%97.7%
0.3%97.5%
<0.1%97.1%
0.2%97.1%
1.1%96.8%
0.7%96.6%
2.2%96.4%
0.4%96.4%
<0.1%96.2%
0.1%95.8%
0.6%95.7%
<0.1%95.3%
3.7%95.2%
0.2%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.7%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%44.7%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.7%
0.2%38.4%
0.1%37.6%
<0.1%36.7%
0.3%36.5%
0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.6%
0.6%25.9%
0.2%24.2%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
51.6%
24.8%98.0%
0.7%97.5%
0.5%97.4%
0.2%97.2%
0.2%97.1%
0.4%96.6%
0.3%95.7%
1.6%94.8%
2.6%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%58.0%
0.2%57.9%
0.1%57.5%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.2%
0.1%53.9%
0.2%53.6%
<0.1%52.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%46.8%
<0.1%46.4%
0.2%46.2%
<0.1%45.7%
0.1%45.0%
0.1%44.8%
0.1%44.7%
0.4%44.0%
0.2%43.2%
0.5%42.5%
0.6%42.4%
0.1%42.0%
<0.1%41.6%
1.4%41.3%
0.8%41.1%
0.7%41.0%
1.1%41.0%
0.3%40.1%
0.5%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%39.4%
0.3%38.5%
0.8%37.0%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.0%
0.1%31.7%
2.0%30.3%
1.2%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.7%
0.2%26.2%
0.4%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.8%
4.2%4.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
25.1%
16.6%100.0%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.8%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%55.3%
0.1%53.4%
0.2%52.3%
0.1%49.3%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%44.3%
0.1%44.2%
<0.1%43.4%
0.2%42.9%
0.5%42.5%
0.4%42.0%
0.3%41.5%
1.0%41.3%
0.3%40.3%
0.8%40.2%
0.2%39.9%
0.5%39.6%
0.2%38.6%
0.6%35.5%
0.4%33.3%
<0.1%32.5%
1.5%32.0%
0.8%24.1%
2.9%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
0.3%1.9%
0.4%1.9%
0.3%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.2%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.3%1.1%
0.7%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.9%0.6%
0.5%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15