Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W44-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W49-17 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:27% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:26% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:31% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:52% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:65% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:14% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:54% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:22% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:55% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:55% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.3% | 49.4% |
| 7-2 | 2.0% | 6.2% |
| 6-3 | 8.0% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 18.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 25.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 13.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 4.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
59.4%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
21.4%
0.6%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
6.6%
1.5%23.5%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.2%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
0.2%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.4%
0.2%2.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
2.0%
0.1%3.2%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15