Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W31-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W21-14 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W31-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:35% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:26% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:50% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:62% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:49% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:66% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:77% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:86% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:28% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 3.4% | 79.4% |
| 6-2 | 13.3% | 13.0% |
| 5-3 | 27.0% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 29.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 18.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 6.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8% (+0.0%) | 4.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.7% (-0.0%) | 4.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.5% (-0.2%) | 4.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.7% (-0.1%) | 4.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.2% (+1.5%) | 4.5% (-0.3%) | |
| 10.0% (+5.3%) | 1.9% (-2.8%) | |
| 4.7% (-0.0%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.4% (+0.7%) | 4.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 4.9% (+0.2%) | 4.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.8% (+0.1%) | 4.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.9% (+0.2%) | 4.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.7% (-0.0%) | 4.8% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
81.0%
1.8%
100.0%
0.2%
96.0%
<0.1%
88.1%
<0.1%
82.0%
<0.1%
81.7%
0.3%
79.8%
0.5%
79.0%
0.1%
75.8%
0.1%
75.2%
0.4%Any 2 losses
27.1%
8.2%95.0%
<0.1%85.7%
0.5%84.0%
<0.1%83.2%
<0.1%80.7%
0.3%77.9%
0.1%73.9%
0.5%73.5%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.2%
0.1%26.2%
<0.1%25.6%
0.1%23.8%
0.2%20.6%
0.2%18.3%
0.3%17.4%
0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
0.2%14.5%
0.2%13.6%
<0.1%13.4%
<0.1%13.3%
0.5%12.8%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
0.8%11.4%
0.1%11.1%
0.3%9.8%
0.9%8.7%
0.5%8.0%
1.1%Any 3 losses
13.0%
6.9%27.5%
0.1%25.3%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%24.5%
<0.1%22.7%
0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.8%
0.1%19.0%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
0.4%16.9%
0.2%16.4%
<0.1%16.1%
0.3%15.7%
0.2%15.1%
0.4%14.1%
0.9%13.6%
0.2%13.3%
<0.1%12.1%
0.2%10.6%
<0.1%9.3%
0.5%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
1.3%8.3%
0.3%7.8%
0.9%Any 4 losses
1.0%
0.3%4.5%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15