Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W55-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W28-27 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:32% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:50% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:71% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:22% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:79% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:23% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:18% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.6% | 95.4% |
| 6-2 | 3.9% | 43.7% |
| 5-3 | 13.8% | 0.8% |
| 4-4 | 27.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 18.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 5.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2.4% (-0.0%) | 2.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.4% (+0.0%) | 2.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.5% (+0.1%) | 2.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.5% (+0.1%) | 2.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.5% (+0.1%) | 2.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.5% (+0.1%) | 2.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.4% (-0.0%) | 2.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.6% (+0.2%) | 2.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.5% (+0.1%) | 2.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.4% (+0.0%) | 2.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (-0.2%) | 2.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.4% (-0.0%) | 2.5% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
95.3%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
0.1%96.9%
<0.1%94.0%
0.1%93.6%
0.2%92.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
44.7%
3.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.7%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%59.7%
<0.1%55.4%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.8%
0.3%52.6%
<0.1%51.1%
<0.1%49.1%
0.1%48.3%
<0.1%47.7%
0.3%45.0%
<0.1%44.9%
0.1%44.6%
0.2%44.4%
0.2%42.5%
0.1%41.4%
0.2%40.9%
<0.1%40.2%
0.4%37.5%
0.5%33.3%
<0.1%31.1%
0.4%22.2%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
2.9%
8.5%85.7%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.5%
0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.5%1.3%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
0.3%1.0%
0.5%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.3%0.8%
0.4%0.8%
0.8%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
1.1%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
1.1%0.5%
0.4%0.5%
0.6%Any 4 losses
2.0%
0.6%50.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15