Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W28-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:66% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:74% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:52% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:6% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:75% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:21% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:64% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:43% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 97.9% |
| 8-1 | 1.1% | 58.8% |
| 7-2 | 7.1% | 6.3% |
| 6-3 | 19.6% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 29.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 25.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 13.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.2% (-0.9%) | 1.6% (+0.5%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.4%) | 1.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.2%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (+0.2%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.1%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.1%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.9%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
58.8%
1.1%
89.5%
<0.1%
85.7%
<0.1%
83.8%
<0.1%
83.3%
<0.1%
83.0%
<0.1%
76.9%
<0.1%
71.0%
0.2%
66.7%
<0.1%
49.2%
0.7%Any 2 losses
6.3%
7.0%60.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
<0.1%17.7%
0.2%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.0%
0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.3%6.2%
0.7%5.1%
0.4%4.5%
1.0%4.4%
0.3%4.2%
0.3%3.4%
0.4%2.4%
2.6%Any 3 losses
0.8%
0.3%1.4%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15