Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
23.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W69-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W51-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W71-0 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:59% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:93% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:96% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:46% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:92% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:97% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:31% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 6.6% | 99.4% |
| 7-1 | 28.4% | 56.6% |
| 6-2 | 39.6% | 1.2% |
| 5-3 | 21.0% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 3.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 23.9% (+0.7%) | 23.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 21.9% (-1.3%) | 23.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.9% (-0.2%) | 23.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 33.9% (+10.7%) | 7.8% (-15.4%) | |
| 22.8% (-0.4%) | 23.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 23.8% (+0.7%) | 23.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 23.0% (-0.1%) | 23.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.9% (-0.3%) | 23.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 23.2% (+0.0%) | 23.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 25.5% (+2.3%) | 23.1% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Akron
UL Monroe
UCLACCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TennesseeCCG: 33.9% • Scenario: 58.9%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.4%
6.6%Any 1 loss
56.7%
28.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
79.7%
0.2%
78.7%
0.5%
75.3%
0.5%
75.2%
0.3%
72.5%
0.2%
65.3%
4.7%
55.5%
7.7%
52.1%
14.2%Any 2 losses
1.5%
39.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%60.4%
<0.1%56.6%
0.1%53.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%6.5%
0.2%5.1%
0.1%4.1%
0.4%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.4%3.6%
1.2%3.1%
0.5%3.0%
0.3%2.9%
0.2%2.9%
1.0%2.9%
0.1%2.8%
0.4%2.5%
0.3%2.2%
0.7%2.1%
0.6%1.9%
0.6%0.7%
17.0%0.7%
10.0%0.7%
5.2%Any 3 losses
1.2%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15