Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W51-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W16-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-19 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L15-25 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W27-21 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:18% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:74% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:37% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:47% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:27% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:36% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.3% | 97.3% |
| 6-2 | 2.8% | 26.8% |
| 5-3 | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 29.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 33.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 17.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.4% (+0.4%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.4%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
South Carolina
UCF
Missouri
Arkansas
VanderbiltCCG: 14.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ArkansasCCG: 1.4% • Scenario: 7.7%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
27.3%
2.6%
100.0%
<0.1%42.7%
<0.1%
39.4%
0.3%29.3%
0.3%
26.0%
0.4%
22.9%
0.5%
22.6%
1.0%Any 2 losses
26.8%
0.3%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%34.0%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%17.6%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29