Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W45-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W23-17 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W30-9 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W31-24 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L7-21 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:84% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:15% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:6% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:64% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:76% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:46% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 75.3% |
| 7-2 | 2.3% | 6.9% |
| 6-3 | 15.1% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 32.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 31.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 14.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 3.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.3%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.2%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Nebraska
UCLA
Northwestern
Oregon
USC
Iowa
Wisconsin
WashingtonCCG: 11.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WashingtonCCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 37.7%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
75.3%
0.1%Any 1 loss
6.9%
2.3%29.6%
<0.1%
27.9%
<0.1%
19.2%
0.1%
18.2%
<0.1%
7.7%
<0.1%
5.1%
0.6%4.6%
1.5%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29