Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W28-14 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W27-13 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L10-42 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L21-38 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:82% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:43% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:56% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:14% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:30% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:10% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:35% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:62% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 0.4% | 9.5% |
| 6-3 | 3.4% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 13.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 30.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 18.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 5.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Rutgers
UCLA
Indiana
Oregon
Minnesota
Ohio StateWisconsin
MichiganCCG: 0.9% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Penn StateOregonWisconsin
WashingtonCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 28.8%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
9.4%
0.4%31.8%
<0.1%
28.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%
14.3%
<0.1%
9.1%
<0.1%
6.7%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%4.8%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29