Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W44-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W49-17 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W26-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W21-18 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:34% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:57% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:68% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:14% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:61% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:27% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:54% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:59% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 98.8% |
| 8-1 | 1.3% | 40.1% |
| 7-2 | 7.3% | 2.6% |
| 6-3 | 19.4% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 29.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 25.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 13.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 3.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.9% (+1.1%) | 0.2% (-0.5%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.2%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.7%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 1.3% (+0.5%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.2%) | 1.0% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Rutgers
Northwestern
Michigan State
Minnesota
Iowa
WashingtonCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
RutgersCCG: 1.9% • Scenario: 33.3%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.8%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
40.0%
1.3%49.2%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%
45.5%
0.2%
42.7%
<0.1%
42.3%
<0.1%
42.0%
0.2%
36.4%
<0.1%
34.8%
0.5%Any 2 losses
2.6%
7.2%11.6%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.1%
0.4%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
0.6%3.7%
0.2%3.0%
0.5%2.9%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
1.2%2.3%
0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.3%
0.3%2.3%
0.2%2.2%
0.2%2.0%
0.5%1.9%
1.5%1.6%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.2%
0.2%1.0%
0.5%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29