Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
33.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W30-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L12-31 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-18 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W27-24 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W27-24 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:63% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:85% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:96% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:48% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:78% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:94% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:24% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 4.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 23.1% | 92.1% |
| 7-2 | 38.0% | 21.4% |
| 6-3 | 25.7% | 0.4% |
| 5-4 | 7.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 33.7% (+0.0%) | 33.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 39.6% (+5.9%) | 33.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 33.9% (+0.2%) | 33.3% (-0.4%) | |
| 40.1% (+6.5%) | 33.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 33.5% (-0.2%) | 34.3% (+0.6%) | |
| 36.0% (+2.4%) | 33.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 33.4% (-0.3%) | 33.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 45.2% (+11.5%) | 14.8% (-18.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UCLA
Michigan State
Minnesota
IowaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MichiganCCG: 45.2% • Scenario: 62.3%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
4.2%Any 1 loss
92.1%
23.1%
99.0%
0.3%
98.8%
1.2%96.8%
0.2%
95.3%
0.7%
94.6%
2.6%
92.0%
4.5%
90.7%
13.6%Any 2 losses
21.4%
38.0%69.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%59.0%
0.1%55.4%
0.4%55.4%
0.2%53.3%
<0.1%52.8%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%47.0%
0.7%46.0%
<0.1%39.7%
0.3%34.8%
0.2%34.8%
0.6%33.2%
0.8%32.8%
0.9%30.4%
1.3%30.1%
3.7%28.6%
2.8%27.1%
2.5%18.2%
8.2%11.3%
14.8%Any 3 losses
0.9%
5.7%8.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.0%
0.2%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.1%
0.7%1.0%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.4%0.8%
1.0%0.7%
0.5%0.7%
1.5%0.7%
0.5%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29