Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W28-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W28-10 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:66% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:37% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:5% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:76% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:19% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:65% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:37% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.0% | 83.3% |
| 7-2 | 1.2% | 6.0% |
| 6-3 | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 25.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 34.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 23.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 7.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Nebraska
UCLA
Indiana
Oregon
USC
Iowa
Purdue
MichiganCCG: 7.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NebraskaCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 66.8%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
83.3%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
5.9%
1.2%20.8%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%
13.6%
<0.1%
9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
0.2%
2.8%
0.8%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29