Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W35-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W30-9 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L19-24 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W24-5 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L18-21 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:37% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:61% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:61% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:54% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:24% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:89% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:18% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.3% | 99.3% |
| 7-2 | 3.4% | 46.7% |
| 6-3 | 14.7% | 0.3% |
| 5-4 | 30.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 30.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 16.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0% (+0.0%) | 1.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.4% (+0.4%) | 1.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (+0.0%) | 1.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.3% (+0.4%) | 1.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (+0.0%) | 1.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.6% (+0.7%) | 1.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.1%) | 2.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-1.7%) | 4.7% (+2.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Rutgers
Penn State
Indiana
Michigan State
Minnesota
IowaWashingtonCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WashingtonCCG: 4.7% • Scenario: 37.7%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.3%
0.3%Any 1 loss
46.6%
3.4%
80.5%
<0.1%69.4%
0.2%68.1%
0.2%
61.7%
0.3%48.7%
0.9%
38.5%
1.4%
38.2%
0.5%Any 2 losses
0.9%
1.5%1.9%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%0.6%
0.8%0.6%
0.3%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29