Big Ten Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-29
Conference Standings
| T1 |  MichiganMICH | 2-0 | 4-1 | 33.7% | |
| T1 |  IndianaIU | 2-0 | 5-0 | 3.0% | |
| T1 |  Ohio StateOSU | 1-0 | 4-0 | 70.1% | |
| T1 |  OregonORE | 1-0 | 4-0 | 50.4% | |
| T1 |  Penn StatePSU | 1-0 | 4-0 | 33.4% | |
| T1 |  IowaIOWA | 1-0 | 3-1 | 1.8% | |
| T1 |  RutgersRUTG | 1-0 | 4-0 | 0.8% | |
| T8 |  USCUSC | 1-1 | 3-1 | 4.4% | |
| T8 |  WashingtonWASH | 1-1 | 3-2 | 1.9% | |
| T8 |  IllinoisILL | 1-1 | 4-1 | 0.2% | |
| T8 |  NebraskaNEB | 1-1 | 4-1 | 0.1% | |
| T8 |  Michigan StateMSU | 1-1 | 3-2 | <0.1% | |
| T13 |  WisconsinWIS | 0-1 | 2-2 | <0.1% | |
| T13 |  MarylandMD | 0-2 | 3-2 | <0.1% | |
| T13 |  MinnesotaMINN | 0-2 | 2-3 | - | |
| T13 |  NorthwesternNU | 0-1 | 2-2 | - | |
| T13 |  PurduePUR | 0-1 | 1-3 | - | |
| T13 |  UCLAUCLA | 0-2 | 1-3 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 70.1%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5% (-0.5%) | 70.3% (+0.3%) | |
| 74.3% (+4.3%) | 69.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 70.0% (-0.1%) | 70.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 75.3% (+5.3%) | 69.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 70.0% (-0.1%) | 70.3% (+0.3%) | |
| 42.2% (-27.8%) | 71.8% (+1.7%) | |
| 70.3% (+0.3%) | 70.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 69.2% (-0.9%) | 71.5% (+1.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
NebraskaUCLAMichigan StateIowaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Ohio StateCCG: 71.8% • Scenario: 94.2%
Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio StateOSU | 100% | 99.6% | 29.5% | 0.3% | 70.1% |
| OregonORE | 99.9% | 82.4% | 14.9% | 0.1% | 50.4% |
| MichiganMICH | 100% | 92.1% | 21.4% | 0.4% | 33.7% |
| Penn StatePSU | 99.9% | 62.9% | 9.8% | <0.1% | 33.4% |
| USCUSC | - | 60.6% | 5.3% | <0.1% | 4.4% |
| IndianaIU | 100% | 61.9% | 5.5% | <0.1% | 3.0% |
| WashingtonWASH | - | 99.3% | 46.7% | 0.3% | 1.9% |
| IowaIOWA | 98.1% | 41.2% | 3.0% | <0.1% | 1.8% |
| RutgersRUTG | 98.8% | 40.1% | 2.6% | <0.1% | 0.8% |
| IllinoisILL | - | 75.3% | 6.9% | - | 0.2% |
| NebraskaNEB | - | 83.3% | 6.0% | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| WisconsinWIS | - | 100% | 9.5% | - | <0.1% |
| MarylandMD | - | - | 30.0% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Michigan StateMSU | - | 100% | 15.0% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| MinnesotaMINN | - | - | 2.9% | - | - |
| NorthwesternNU | - | - | 5.0% | - | - |
| PurduePUR | - | - | - | - | - |
| UCLAUCLA | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-09-29
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio StateOSU(1-0) | 20.7% | 41.1% | 28.5% | 8.5% | 1.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 7.7 |
| OregonORE(1-0) | 14.3% | 37.8% | 33.4% | 12.1% | 2.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 7.5 |
| Penn StatePSU(1-0) | 9.9% | 32.0% | 35.1% | 17.7% | 4.6% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 7.2 |
| MichiganMICH(2-0) | 4.2% | 23.1% | 38.0% | 25.7% | 7.8% | 1.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | - | 6.9 |
| USCUSC(1-1) | - | 5.3% | 21.8% | 34.2% | 25.7% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | - | 5.8 |
| IndianaIU(2-0) | 0.1% | 3.2% | 16.8% | 34.1% | 30.1% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 0.2% | - | - | 5.6 |
| IowaIOWA(1-0) | 0.2% | 3.1% | 13.8% | 27.6% | 29.6% | 18.0% | 6.4% | 1.2% | <0.1% | - | 5.3 |
| RutgersRUTG(1-0) | <0.1% | 1.3% | 7.3% | 19.4% | 29.3% | 25.5% | 13.2% | 3.6% | 0.4% | - | 4.7 |
| IllinoisILL(1-1) | - | 0.1% | 2.3% | 15.1% | 32.5% | 31.7% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 0.2% | - | 4.5 |
| WashingtonWASH(1-1) | - | 0.3% | 3.4% | 14.7% | 30.1% | 30.7% | 16.5% | 4.0% | 0.3% | - | 4.5 |
| NebraskaNEB(1-1) | - | <0.1% | 1.2% | 8.6% | 25.0% | 34.2% | 23.0% | 7.2% | 0.8% | - | 4.1 |
| WisconsinWIS(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.4% | 13.3% | 27.2% | 30.8% | 18.8% | 5.6% | 0.6% | 3.3 |
| MarylandMD(0-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 2.0% | 12.3% | 29.6% | 32.9% | 17.8% | 4.8% | 0.5% | 3.3 |
| Michigan StateMSU(1-1) | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.8% | 6.5% | 21.5% | 36.7% | 27.8% | 6.7% | - | 3.0 |
| NorthwesternNU(0-1) | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 13.5% | 28.1% | 32.1% | 18.3% | 3.8% | 2.4 |
| MinnesotaMINN(0-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 13.0% | 27.0% | 31.3% | 19.7% | 5.0% | 2.4 |
| UCLAUCLA(0-2) | - | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.6% | 16.8% | 32.9% | 32.7% | 12.3% | 1.7 |
| PurduePUR(0-1) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 7.6% | 24.9% | 40.5% | 25.8% | 1.2 |
Data from 2024-09-29