Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | W27-20 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W48-0 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L24-27 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W38-21 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:79% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:41% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:63% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:86% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:46% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:84% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:29% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 5.3% | 60.6% |
| 7-2 | 21.8% | 5.3% |
| 6-3 | 34.2% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 25.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 10.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5% (+0.1%) | 4.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.5% (+0.1%) | 4.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.3% (-0.0%) | 4.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 6.4% (+2.0%) | 4.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 5.4% (+1.0%) | 0.8% (-3.6%) | |
| 6.7% (+2.3%) | 4.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.1% (-0.3%) | 4.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 3.4% (-1.0%) | 6.0% (+1.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UCLA
Northwestern
Michigan State
IowaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
USC
WashingtonCCG: 7.3% • Scenario: 29.7%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
60.2%
1.6%Any 1 loss
25.9%
10.1%
60.8%
3.7%
13.1%
0.4%
12.5%
0.4%7.3%
0.3%
7.2%
0.2%
6.7%
0.9%
3.9%
2.3%3.3%
1.9%Any 2 losses
5.2%
15.4%12.5%
0.6%11.3%
0.9%10.2%
1.0%5.7%
0.7%5.1%
2.2%3.7%
5.4%3.4%
4.4%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29