Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
50.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W24-14 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W37-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W49-14 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W34-13 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:97% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:46% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:97% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:94% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:52% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:90% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 14.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 37.8% | 82.4% |
| 7-2 | 33.4% | 14.9% |
| 6-3 | 12.1% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 2.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 50.2% (-0.2%) | 50.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 57.4% (+7.0%) | 50.0% (-0.4%) | |
| 50.0% (-0.4%) | 51.4% (+0.9%) | |
| 25.7% (-24.7%) | 51.1% (+0.7%) | |
| 50.0% (-0.4%) | 51.9% (+1.5%) | |
| 53.5% (+3.0%) | 50.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 50.5% (+0.0%) | 50.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 47.3% (-3.1%) | 55.6% (+5.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Rutgers
UCLA
Northwestern
Michigan State
PurdueCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Oregon
WashingtonCCG: 56.3% • Scenario: 36.7%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
14.3%Any 1 loss
82.4%
37.7%
96.4%
1.6%
96.3%
1.6%95.6%
0.4%
94.3%
0.9%93.9%
3.0%91.2%
0.4%
79.5%
16.7%
78.4%
13.1%Any 2 losses
14.9%
33.4%61.7%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%39.7%
0.2%39.6%
0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.6%
0.1%34.2%
0.3%33.8%
0.4%33.3%
<0.1%32.2%
0.2%31.2%
0.5%23.3%
0.4%22.0%
1.8%21.6%
0.4%21.4%
1.4%18.8%
1.8%18.5%
1.4%18.4%
1.1%18.3%
0.9%18.0%
0.5%12.8%
2.9%10.3%
3.5%10.0%
15.2%Any 3 losses
0.8%
1.4%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.5%
0.4%0.5%
0.4%0.5%
0.4%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29