Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
20.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W44-21 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W36-33 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-17 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:60% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:87% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:69% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:33% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:85% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:64% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 6.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 25.1% | 53.9% |
| 6-2 | 35.8% | 1.9% |
| 5-3 | 23.8% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 7.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 22.2% (+1.8%) | 20.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 20.4% (+0.0%) | 20.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 20.2% (-0.1%) | 20.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 19.8% (-0.6%) | 21.1% (+0.8%) | |
| 19.9% (-0.5%) | 26.1% (+5.8%) | |
| 20.3% (-0.1%) | 25.2% (+4.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Auburn
Arkansas
VanderbiltCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ArkansasCCG: 26.1% • Scenario: 7.7%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
6.1%Any 1 loss
53.9%
25.1%
83.2%
4.1%
69.3%
2.8%
58.8%
1.1%56.2%
0.9%51.5%
0.2%
49.9%
3.4%
41.6%
12.6%Any 2 losses
1.9%
35.8%6.1%
0.8%5.4%
0.5%5.2%
1.9%4.8%
0.4%4.5%
0.6%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.2%
0.6%2.8%
0.5%2.8%
<0.1%2.3%
2.3%1.8%
1.6%1.8%
0.4%1.6%
8.5%1.4%
1.9%1.4%
5.9%1.3%
2.2%0.9%
7.2%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29