Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
36.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W69-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W51-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W71-0 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W25-15 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:92% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:95% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:46% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:88% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:98% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:34% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 11.3% | 99.4% |
| 7-1 | 39.5% | 61.2% |
| 6-2 | 38.1% | 1.8% |
| 5-3 | 10.0% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 39.2% (+3.2%) | 35.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 36.0% (-0.1%) | 36.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 36.3% (+0.3%) | 35.9% (-0.2%) | |
| 36.8% (+0.7%) | 35.1% (-1.0%) | |
| 38.2% (+2.1%) | 10.3% (-25.7%) | |
| 35.9% (-0.1%) | 43.0% (+7.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Auburn
Ole Miss
UCF
Missouri
VanderbiltCCG: 66.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TennesseeCCG: 38.2% • Scenario: 92.3%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.4%
11.2%Any 1 loss
61.3%
39.2%
100.0%
0.1%
79.8%
1.6%
79.4%
0.3%
75.0%
0.6%71.1%
0.4%
70.0%
0.9%
65.6%
22.2%
49.6%
13.2%Any 2 losses
2.5%
38.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%68.2%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%44.5%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.2%
0.1%9.9%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
1.9%5.2%
3.1%4.8%
0.7%4.1%
1.1%3.8%
0.3%3.5%
0.5%3.2%
1.8%2.9%
0.4%2.2%
0.7%1.6%
1.1%0.7%
25.6%Any 3 losses
3.0%
0.4%50.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.3%
0.3%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29