Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W76-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W52-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W40-6 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W52-13 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L17-20 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:65% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:40% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:63% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:86% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:33% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:84% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 3.7% | 58.9% |
| 6-2 | 19.0% | 1.9% |
| 5-3 | 34.8% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 28.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 11.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.4% (-0.1%) | 2.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.8% (+1.2%) | 0.3% (-2.3%) | |
| 2.5% (-0.1%) | 2.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.6% (+0.0%) | 2.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.4% (-0.1%) | 3.6% (+1.0%) | |
| 2.5% (-0.0%) | 3.2% (+0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
GeorgiaOle Miss
UCF
Texas A&M
Arkansas
VanderbiltCCG: 23.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Ole MissCCG: 3.8% • Scenario: 64.8%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
58.9%
3.7%Any 1 loss
1.9%
19.0%
4.6%
2.1%
4.1%
0.2%
3.2%
0.7%
2.4%
5.7%1.7%
0.6%1.0%
7.6%
0.5%
2.2%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29