Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W34-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W48-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W13-12 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L34-41 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:96% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:98% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:35% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:95% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:67% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:66% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 13.9% | 92.0% |
| 6-2 | 41.2% | 5.8% |
| 5-3 | 34.1% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 10.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.9% (-13.3%) | 15.8% (+0.6%) | |
| 15.6% (+0.4%) | 14.5% (-0.7%) | |
| 15.1% (-0.1%) | 15.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 14.9% (-0.3%) | 15.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 15.0% (-0.1%) | 16.9% (+1.7%) | |
| 15.1% (-0.1%) | 19.5% (+4.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
South Carolina
UCF
Missouri
Arkansas
VanderbiltCCG: 28.6% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Georgia
Ole MissCCG: 16.1% • Scenario: 62.1%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
92.0%
13.2%Any 1 loss
7.3%
39.8%
92.3%
0.1%
91.8%
0.6%
14.3%
0.5%
13.0%
0.2%11.8%
6.4%
9.6%
0.6%
4.5%
6.6%
4.3%
24.7%Any 2 losses
5.8%
2.1%80.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%12.2%
0.3%8.0%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.2%
<0.1%5.5%
0.3%4.3%
0.3%3.8%
1.1%3.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29