Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
13.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W30-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L12-31 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-18 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W27-24 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W27-24 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L17-27 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:83% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:95% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:45% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:73% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:93% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:19% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 4.5% | 97.3% |
| 7-2 | 28.3% | 30.3% |
| 6-3 | 42.2% | 0.7% |
| 5-4 | 20.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 3.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 13.0% (-0.2%) | 13.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 13.5% (+0.3%) | 12.9% (-0.3%) | |
| 13.3% (+0.1%) | 12.9% (-0.3%) | |
| 10.7% (-2.6%) | 17.4% (+4.2%) | |
| 12.4% (-0.8%) | 13.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 13.6% (+0.3%) | 12.7% (-0.5%) | |
| 13.7% (+0.5%) | 12.6% (-0.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Maryland
UCLA
Iowa
USC
Purdue
Rutgers
Ohio StateCCG: 26.8% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
USCCCG: 17.4% • Scenario: 37.7%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.3%
4.5%Any 1 loss
30.3%
28.3%
67.3%
0.3%
66.5%
0.2%
62.3%
0.9%
53.0%
1.7%
36.3%
5.6%24.1%
19.6%Any 2 losses
1.3%
15.7%4.5%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%2.5%
1.4%2.0%
4.0%1.9%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
1.1%1.2%
0.3%0.7%
1.1%0.7%
7.2%0.5%
0.4%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06