Big Ten

Big Ten Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-06

Big TenConference Standings

T1IndianaIU3-06-05.7%
T1Ohio StOSU2-05-078.7%
T1OregonORE2-05-054.8%
T1Penn StPSU2-05-037.7%
T5MichiganMICH2-14-213.2%
T5WashingtonWASH2-14-26.3%
T5NebraskaNEB2-15-10.2%
T8IowaIOWA1-13-20.9%
T8WisconsinWIS1-13-20.8%
T8IllinoisILL1-14-10.3%
T8RutgersRUTG1-14-10.3%
T12USCUSC1-23-20.9%
T12MinnesotaMINN1-23-3<0.1%
T12Michigan StMSU1-23-3<0.1%
T15MarylandMD0-23-2<0.1%
T15NorthwesternNU0-22-3-
T15PurduePUR0-21-4-
T15UCLAUCLA0-31-4-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big Ten CCG Matchups

138.1%
Ohio StOSU
vs
OREOregon
223.1%
Ohio StOSU
vs
PSUPenn St
311.0%
OregonORE
vs
PSUPenn St
47.4%
MichiganMICH
vs
OSUOhio St
53.9%
Ohio StOSU
vs
WASHWashington
63.5%
IndianaIU
vs
OSUOhio St
72.9%
MichiganMICH
vs
OREOregon
82.1%
MichiganMICH
vs
PSUPenn St
91.2%
IndianaIU
vs
OREOregon
101.2%
OregonORE
vs
WASHWashington
110.7%
Ohio StOSU
vs
USCUSC
120.7%
IndianaIU
vs
PSUPenn St
130.7%
IowaIOWA
vs
OSUOhio St
140.6%
Penn StPSU
vs
WASHWashington
150.6%
Ohio StOSU
vs
WISWisconsin

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big Ten CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 78.7%
Game
Ohio StCCG OddsAway
Ohio StCCG OddsHome
NorthwesternNU@MarylandMD
79.2%
(+0.5%)		78.5%
(-0.1%)
MinnesotaMINN@UCLAUCLA
78.6%
(-0.1%)		78.7%
(+0.1%)
WashingtonWASH@IowaIOWA
77.8%
(-0.9%)		80.7%
(+2.0%)
Penn StPSU@USCUSC
77.3%
(-1.4%)		80.9%
(+2.2%)
PurduePUR@IllinoisILL
80.2%
(+1.6%)		78.5%
(-0.2%)
WisconsinWIS@RutgersRUTG
78.6%
(-0.1%)		78.7%
(+0.1%)
Ohio StOSU@OregonORE
92.6%
(+13.9%)		59.4%
(-19.2%)

Best Winner Combination for Ohio St

NorthwesternNorthwesternUCLAUCLAIowaIowaUSCUSCPurduePurdueRutgersRutgersOhio StOhio State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Ohio St

Ohio StOhio State

CCG: 92.6% • Scenario: 58.0%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-26-3Overall
Ohio StOSU100%99.7%33.0%0.3%78.7%
OregonORE100%91.0%26.4%0.3%54.8%
Penn StPSU100%75.4%19.3%0.2%37.7%
MichiganMICH-97.3%30.3%0.7%13.2%
WashingtonWASH-99.6%43.0%0.2%6.3%
IndianaIU98.9%62.1%7.4%<0.1%5.7%
IowaIOWA-50.1%5.1%<0.1%0.9%
USCUSC--20.5%<0.1%0.9%
WisconsinWIS-89.8%14.9%<0.1%0.8%
IllinoisILL-80.9%7.6%<0.1%0.3%
RutgersRUTG-49.2%7.7%<0.1%0.3%
NebraskaNEB-91.1%10.9%0.2%0.2%
MarylandMD--36.5%0.3%<0.1%
MinnesotaMINN--13.6%<0.1%<0.1%
Michigan StMSU--17.4%0.8%<0.1%
NorthwesternNU--100%--
PurduePUR-----
UCLAUCLA-----

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
Ohio StOSU(2-0)27.7%43.4%23.3%5.1%0.4%<0.1%0.0%0.0%--7.9
OregonORE(2-0)12.7%36.3%34.4%13.8%2.6%0.2%<0.1%0.0%--7.4
Penn StPSU(2-0)8.2%29.9%35.8%19.7%5.5%0.8%<0.1%0.0%--7.1
MichiganMICH(2-1)-4.5%28.3%42.2%20.7%3.9%0.3%<0.1%--6.1
IndianaIU(3-0)0.3%5.8%25.1%39.7%23.8%5.1%0.2%---6.0
WashingtonWASH(2-1)-1.3%11.4%31.1%34.7%17.4%3.8%0.2%--5.3
IowaIOWA(1-1)-1.1%7.6%21.5%30.7%24.8%11.3%2.7%0.3%-4.8
USCUSC(1-2)--4.5%20.8%35.7%27.4%10.0%1.6%0.1%-4.8
IllinoisILL(1-1)-0.1%2.8%16.7%33.7%30.7%13.3%2.5%0.2%-4.6
WisconsinWIS(1-1)-0.3%3.5%14.8%29.3%30.3%16.7%4.7%0.5%-4.4
NebraskaNEB(2-1)-<0.1%1.7%10.9%28.9%35.7%19.3%3.3%--4.3
RutgersRUTG(1-1)-0.2%2.4%11.3%25.5%31.4%20.9%7.2%1.0%-4.2
MarylandMD(0-2)--0.1%2.3%13.5%30.5%32.4%16.7%4.2%0.4%3.4
MinnesotaMINN(1-2)--0.1%2.2%10.6%26.0%33.6%21.9%5.6%-3.2
Michigan StMSU(1-2)--<0.1%1.0%7.3%24.8%38.1%24.8%4.0%-3.1
NorthwesternNU(0-2)--0.0%<0.1%1.0%6.4%22.3%37.2%27.6%5.4%2.0
UCLAUCLA(0-3)---<0.1%0.6%4.3%16.7%33.1%32.9%12.4%1.7
PurduePUR(0-2)--0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%1.2%10.4%38.4%49.8%0.6

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com