Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W28-14 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W27-13 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L10-42 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L21-38 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W52-6 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:60% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:73% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:24% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:17% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:49% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:72% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.3% | 89.8% |
| 7-2 | 3.5% | 14.9% |
| 6-3 | 14.8% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 29.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 30.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 16.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.0%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.4%) | 0.2% (-0.6%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.7% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Maryland
UCLA
Iowa
USC
PurdueWisconsin
OregonCCG: 3.6% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WisconsinCCG: 1.2% • Scenario: 59.5%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
89.8%
0.3%Any 1 loss
14.9%
3.5%
35.3%
0.1%
34.3%
0.3%
32.8%
0.2%32.6%
0.3%
30.0%
0.1%
8.8%
1.0%5.9%
1.4%1.2%
<0.1%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06