Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W35-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W30-9 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L19-24 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W24-5 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L18-21 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W27-17 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:69% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:62% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:62% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:28% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:91% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:20% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 1.3% | 99.6% |
| 7-2 | 11.4% | 43.0% |
| 6-3 | 31.1% | 0.2% |
| 5-4 | 34.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 17.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 3.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 6.4% (+0.1%) | 6.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.1% (-0.2%) | 6.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 8.5% (+2.2%) | 1.4% (-4.9%) | |
| 5.6% (-0.7%) | 7.4% (+1.1%) | |
| 6.2% (-0.1%) | 6.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.0% (-0.3%) | 6.7% (+0.4%) | |
| 6.1% (-0.2%) | 6.6% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Maryland
MinnesotaWashington
USC
Purdue
Rutgers
OregonCCG: 16.0% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WashingtonCCG: 8.5% • Scenario: 68.7%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.6%
1.3%Any 1 loss
43.0%
11.4%
76.8%
0.1%75.7%
0.9%
72.4%
0.6%
59.3%
0.8%
42.2%
3.6%31.6%
5.3%Any 2 losses
0.8%
2.6%5.8%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.5%
2.1%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06