Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W44-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W49-17 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W26-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W21-18 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L7-14 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:40% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:67% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:16% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:56% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:27% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:54% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.2% | 49.2% |
| 7-2 | 2.4% | 7.7% |
| 6-3 | 11.3% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 25.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 31.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 20.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 7.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.3%) | 0.7% (+0.4%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Northwestern
UCLA
Washington
USC
PurdueRutgers
OregonCCG: 4.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
RutgersCCG: 0.7% • Scenario: 40.5%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
49.2%
0.2%Any 1 loss
7.7%
2.4%
10.5%
0.1%10.3%
0.1%
9.8%
0.2%7.9%
1.0%
7.1%
0.5%
6.0%
0.3%
5.3%
0.2%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06