Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W45-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W23-17 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W30-9 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W31-24 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L7-21 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:91% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:17% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:6% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:76% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:46% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:61% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 80.9% |
| 7-2 | 2.8% | 7.6% |
| 6-3 | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 33.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 30.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 13.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.3%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Northwestern
UCLA
Iowa
USC
Purdue
Wisconsin
OregonCCG: 2.6% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
USCIllinoisCCG: 0.4% • Scenario: 34.2%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
80.9%
0.1%Any 1 loss
7.6%
2.8%
26.3%
<0.1%
24.2%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%
17.0%
<0.1%
6.5%
0.6%5.3%
1.8%1.1%
<0.1%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06