Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | W27-20 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W48-0 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L24-27 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W38-21 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L17-24 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:38% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:59% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:84% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:38% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:78% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:81% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:26% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 4.5% | 20.5% |
| 6-3 | 20.8% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 35.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 10.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.9% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.9%) | 2.5% (+1.5%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.2%) | 0.7% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Northwestern
Minnesota
IowaUSC
Purdue
Rutgers
Ohio StateCCG: 10.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
USCCCG: 2.5% • Scenario: 37.7%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
18.5%
1.2%Any 1 loss
19.7%
3.6%
21.3%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06