OregonDucks

5-0 T1st (2-0) in B1G

Data from 2024-10-06 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

54.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsIdahoIDHO	W24-14
2	9/07	vsBoise StateBOIS	W37-34
3	9/14	@Oregon StateORST	W49-14
5	9/28	@UCLAUCLA	W34-13
6	10/04	vsMichigan StateMSU	W31-10
7	10/12	vsOhio StateOSU	Win prob:42%
8	10/18	@PurduePUR	Win prob:98%
9	10/26	vsIllinoisILL	Win prob:94%
10	11/02	@MichiganMICH	Win prob:55%
11	11/09	vsMarylandMD	Win prob:90%
12	11/16	@WisconsinWIS	Win prob:83%
14	11/30	vsWashingtonWASH	Win prob:80%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	12.7%	100.0%
8-1	36.3%	91.0%
7-2	34.4%	26.4%
6-3	13.8%	0.3%
5-4	2.6%	0%
4-5	0.2%	0%
3-6	0.0%	0%
2-7	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

70.1%

20.2%

5.4%

2.3%

2.1%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
NorthwesternNU@MarylandMD	54.4% (-0.4%)	54.9% (+0.1%)
MinnesotaMINN@UCLAUCLA	53.9% (-0.9%)	55.8% (+1.0%)
WashingtonWASH@IowaIOWA	54.5% (-0.3%)	55.4% (+0.6%)
Penn StatePSU@USCUSC	52.5% (-2.3%)	58.6% (+3.8%)
PurduePUR@IllinoisILL	54.7% (-0.1%)	54.8% (+0.0%)
WisconsinWIS@RutgersRUTG	54.7% (-0.1%)	54.9% (+0.1%)
Ohio StateOSU@OregonORE	36.3% (-18.5%)	80.3% (+25.5%)

Best Winner Combination for

Northwestern

Minnesota

Iowa

USC

Purdue

Wisconsin

Oregon

CCG: 96.8% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Oregon

CCG: 80.3% • Scenario: 42.0%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

12.7%

Any 1 loss

91.0%

36.3%

97.5%

0.9%

97.0%

2.7%

96.8%

1.4%

96.6%

10.3%

96.0%

3.3%

87.0%

0.2%

85.0%

17.4%

Any 2 losses

26.4%

34.4%

58.1%

<0.1%

52.3%

0.3%

52.0%

0.2%

42.9%

<0.1%

40.8%

<0.1%

40.7%

1.1%

39.1%

0.2%

38.3%

0.7%

37.7%

0.2%

36.4%

0.4%

34.3%

2.1%

31.7%

0.6%

30.1%

0.3%

29.5%

1.1%

28.8%

<0.1%

28.5%

1.9%

27.5%

3.7%

25.2%

14.2%

25.0%

<0.1%

24.2%

2.7%

13.2%

4.5%

Any 3 losses

1.3%

9.1%

<0.1%

5.0%

<0.1%

5.0%

<0.1%

2.4%

0.1%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.2%

<0.1%

1.0%

0.4%

0.8%

0.2%

0.8%

0.3%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com