Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W52-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W56-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:8% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:38% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:4% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:17% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:40% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:53% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:77% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:23% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:12% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:48% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 84.4% |
| 6-2 | 1.1% | 28.8% |
| 5-3 | 6.4% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 19.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 31.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 28.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 12.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2.5% (+2.1%) | 0.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.4%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 2 losses
76.9%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
34.8%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.2%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
26.6%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.5%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.5%
0.1%23.0%
<0.1%19.6%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07