Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W69-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:72% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:47% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:79% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:60% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:45% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:53% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:48% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.8% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 5.3% | 98.6% |
| 7-2 | 15.3% | 70.7% |
| 6-3 | 25.2% | 10.3% |
| 5-4 | 25.9% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 17.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 7.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 19.6% (+0.1%) | 19.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 19.2% (-0.2%) | 19.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.5% (+0.1%) | 19.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 19.5% (+0.1%) | 19.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 19.1% (-0.3%) | 19.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 19.6% (+0.1%) | 19.0% (-0.4%) | |
| 19.4% (-0.1%) | 19.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.3% (-0.2%) | 19.9% (+0.5%) | |
| 19.6% (+0.2%) | 19.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 19.3% (-0.2%) | 19.5% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Samford
Northwestern State
Arkansas State
Kansas State
Wyoming
Abilene ChristianCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kansas State
Arizona State
UtahCCG: 19.9% • Scenario: 36.6%
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.5%Any 1 loss
98.7%
4.0%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
0.2%
99.7%
0.3%
99.5%
0.6%
99.4%
0.2%
99.2%
0.3%99.2%
0.4%
98.6%
0.5%
97.7%
0.7%
97.1%
0.7%Any 2 losses
73.9%
12.5%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
0.3%98.6%
0.2%97.6%
0.3%97.3%
0.1%97.2%
0.3%93.0%
<0.1%90.4%
<0.1%87.4%
0.1%86.9%
0.3%84.8%
<0.1%84.1%
0.3%83.5%
0.1%82.5%
0.1%82.4%
0.2%81.8%
0.3%81.6%
0.3%80.5%
0.1%79.5%
0.6%79.2%
0.3%76.6%
0.2%75.3%
0.3%74.5%
0.2%74.5%
<0.1%71.8%
0.3%71.7%
0.3%71.6%
0.2%71.3%
0.2%71.1%
0.3%70.9%
0.3%69.8%
0.3%69.3%
0.2%69.1%
0.3%67.4%
0.7%67.2%
0.6%66.3%
0.8%66.1%
0.4%64.8%
0.2%62.4%
0.5%61.3%
0.6%57.5%
0.4%50.1%
0.7%Any 3 losses
21.9%
22.6%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%87.8%
0.1%87.7%
0.1%85.4%
<0.1%85.4%
<0.1%82.8%
0.1%82.3%
<0.1%80.5%
0.1%80.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%78.6%
0.2%76.3%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.5%
0.1%74.1%
0.2%74.1%
0.1%73.2%
0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.9%
0.1%69.8%
<0.1%69.6%
0.1%69.5%
0.1%68.9%
0.3%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
0.1%65.8%
0.3%64.4%
0.2%63.8%
<0.1%63.6%
0.2%63.5%
0.2%60.0%
0.2%48.7%
0.3%38.1%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
0.1%21.1%
0.1%21.0%
0.3%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
0.2%18.2%
0.1%18.2%
0.1%17.8%
0.1%17.0%
0.3%16.0%
0.1%15.9%
0.1%15.7%
0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.3%
0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.6%
0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.2%
0.1%13.1%
0.4%13.1%
0.3%13.0%
0.3%12.9%
0.2%12.8%
0.3%12.8%
0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.6%
0.4%12.0%
<0.1%12.0%
0.2%12.0%
0.2%11.9%
0.3%11.6%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.2%
0.3%11.0%
0.2%10.8%
0.3%10.8%
0.2%10.7%
0.3%10.6%
0.1%10.5%
0.2%9.8%
0.3%9.7%
0.4%9.6%
0.2%9.3%
0.1%9.2%
0.7%9.0%
0.2%8.7%
0.4%8.7%
0.3%8.6%
0.1%8.6%
0.2%8.5%
0.2%8.5%
0.3%8.1%
0.3%8.1%
0.1%8.1%
0.2%8.0%
0.2%8.0%
0.2%8.0%
<0.1%7.8%
0.4%7.6%
0.6%7.3%
0.2%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
0.5%6.6%
0.3%6.4%
0.4%6.4%
0.7%6.4%
0.5%5.7%
0.9%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.4%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
0.3%5.0%
0.5%4.5%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%Any 4 losses
10.2%
7.4%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.3%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.3%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.8%
0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.9%
0.1%13.8%
0.1%13.8%
0.1%13.6%
0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.1%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.0%
0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
0.1%11.3%
0.2%11.1%
0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.6%
0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.4%
0.3%9.3%
0.1%9.2%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
0.1%8.4%
0.3%8.4%
0.2%8.2%
0.2%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
0.3%7.5%
0.2%6.4%
0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
0.2%5.4%
0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.4%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07