Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L24-38 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W48-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:39% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:74% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:44% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:24% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:55% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:49% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 2.3% | 98.1% |
| 7-2 | 9.4% | 62.0% |
| 6-3 | 20.7% | 5.5% |
| 5-4 | 27.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 23.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 12.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 3.9% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.2% (-0.3%) | 9.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.4% (-0.0%) | 9.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.5% (+0.1%) | 9.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 9.4% (-0.1%) | 9.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.5% (+0.0%) | 9.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.5% (+0.0%) | 9.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.3%) | 9.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.3% (-0.2%) | 9.9% (+0.5%) | |
| 9.6% (+0.1%) | 9.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.6% (+0.1%) | 9.4% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Samford
Northwestern State
Arizona
Abilene Christian
Houston
Oregon StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Houston
Texas TechCCG: 10.1% • Scenario: 21.1%
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
98.0%
2.1%100.0%
<0.1%
98.8%
<0.1%
98.8%
0.2%
98.5%
0.1%98.2%
<0.1%
98.1%
0.2%
98.0%
0.3%
98.0%
0.3%
97.7%
0.7%97.4%
0.1%Any 2 losses
62.9%
8.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%89.2%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.7%
0.1%78.1%
<0.1%77.6%
<0.1%77.1%
0.1%75.8%
0.3%73.8%
<0.1%72.5%
0.1%72.1%
<0.1%72.1%
0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.9%
0.2%68.9%
0.1%68.6%
0.2%67.3%
0.1%67.3%
0.5%66.3%
0.6%66.3%
0.2%65.8%
0.1%64.5%
0.2%63.3%
0.5%62.1%
0.3%61.5%
0.3%61.3%
0.2%60.8%
0.2%58.5%
0.7%57.5%
0.4%56.6%
0.2%54.3%
0.4%51.5%
0.9%48.1%
1.1%Any 3 losses
8.2%
19.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.3%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.8%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%15.5%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.6%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.4%
<0.1%12.9%
0.1%12.9%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.9%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.3%
0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.7%
0.1%10.6%
0.1%10.4%
0.2%10.0%
0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.3%
0.3%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
0.3%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.5%
0.4%8.4%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
0.2%7.3%
0.3%7.2%
<0.1%7.1%
0.2%7.0%
0.1%6.9%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
0.4%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
0.4%5.9%
0.3%5.8%
0.5%5.4%
0.1%5.2%
0.2%5.1%
0.5%5.0%
0.3%4.9%
0.2%4.7%
0.8%4.7%
0.3%4.2%
0.3%4.1%
0.7%4.1%
0.6%4.1%
0.8%4.0%
0.6%4.0%
0.2%3.7%
0.7%3.5%
0.3%3.3%
0.3%3.2%
0.6%3.0%
0.2%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
1.3%2.1%
1.1%1.8%
0.4%1.8%
0.9%1.3%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07