Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
35.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | W48-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:57% | |
| 5 | 9/26 | Win prob:44% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:71% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:49% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:76% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:52% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:84% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 11.4% | 99.3% |
| 7-2 | 24.4% | 74.6% |
| 6-3 | 28.8% | 12.2% |
| 5-4 | 20.7% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 34.8% (-0.5%) | 35.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 36.0% (+0.7%) | 35.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 35.2% (-0.1%) | 35.6% (+0.3%) | |
| 35.4% (+0.1%) | 35.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 35.6% (+0.3%) | 35.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 35.4% (+0.0%) | 35.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 35.0% (-0.4%) | 35.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 34.9% (-0.4%) | 36.4% (+1.1%) | |
| 35.0% (-0.4%) | 35.6% (+0.3%) | |
| 35.3% (+0.0%) | 35.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Samford
Northwestern State
Arkansas State
Texas State
Wyoming
Abilene ChristianCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Baylor
HoustonCCG: 36.6% • Scenario: 23.4%
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.2%Any 1 loss
99.3%
6.9%
100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.1%
99.6%
0.5%99.6%
0.2%
99.5%
1.1%
99.4%
1.2%
99.2%
0.4%
99.2%
0.5%
99.0%
0.2%
98.7%
1.5%Any 2 losses
81.6%
17.6%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.9%99.4%
1.1%99.4%
0.2%99.3%
0.3%99.3%
0.7%99.2%
0.4%98.8%
0.3%98.7%
0.1%98.4%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.6%
0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.2%
0.1%87.9%
0.1%87.4%
0.1%86.9%
0.2%85.4%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.8%
0.2%83.6%
0.1%81.8%
0.2%81.3%
<0.1%79.7%
0.2%79.6%
0.3%79.5%
<0.1%79.2%
0.1%78.6%
0.3%78.4%
0.4%78.1%
0.4%77.9%
0.5%77.6%
0.2%77.0%
<0.1%75.4%
0.4%75.0%
1.1%74.6%
0.1%74.4%
0.5%74.2%
0.6%73.6%
0.5%73.4%
0.2%72.5%
0.4%72.4%
0.3%71.8%
1.3%70.6%
0.5%70.2%
1.5%64.7%
0.5%59.5%
0.6%Any 3 losses
40.3%
26.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.4%
0.1%98.1%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%87.7%
0.2%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.0%
0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.5%
0.1%85.4%
0.1%85.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
0.2%81.8%
<0.1%81.1%
0.2%80.8%
<0.1%80.1%
0.3%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.8%
0.4%78.7%
0.1%78.5%
0.3%78.1%
<0.1%78.1%
0.3%77.7%
0.4%77.5%
0.1%77.4%
<0.1%77.1%
0.1%76.7%
0.1%76.3%
0.3%76.1%
0.2%76.0%
0.1%75.5%
<0.1%75.3%
<0.1%75.2%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%74.6%
0.8%74.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.5%
0.4%73.5%
0.2%73.3%
0.3%71.2%
0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.5%
1.1%70.4%
1.0%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
0.4%66.0%
<0.1%65.7%
0.4%65.4%
0.2%65.4%
0.5%64.8%
<0.1%60.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.2%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.0%
<0.1%24.6%
<0.1%24.5%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.0%
0.1%22.7%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.5%
0.2%20.4%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%20.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.8%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
0.1%17.2%
<0.1%17.0%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.3%
0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
0.2%15.7%
0.1%15.6%
0.3%15.2%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.8%
0.3%14.7%
0.1%14.5%
0.4%14.4%
0.4%14.0%
<0.1%13.7%
0.1%13.6%
0.4%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
0.2%13.0%
0.1%12.4%
0.5%12.4%
0.5%12.3%
<0.1%12.2%
0.3%12.2%
0.2%12.0%
0.1%11.7%
0.1%11.7%
0.2%11.5%
<0.1%11.3%
0.2%11.0%
<0.1%10.8%
0.6%10.7%
<0.1%10.6%
0.2%10.5%
0.2%10.4%
1.4%10.4%
0.3%10.3%
0.1%10.2%
0.2%10.2%
0.5%9.9%
0.4%9.9%
0.1%9.7%
0.5%9.3%
0.3%9.2%
0.3%9.0%
<0.1%8.8%
0.6%8.8%
<0.1%8.6%
0.2%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
0.7%6.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
16.2%
13.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.4%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.0%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.5%
0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.8%
0.1%17.5%
0.2%17.1%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
0.2%16.0%
0.1%15.8%
0.2%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.6%
0.3%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.6%
0.2%14.6%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.4%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
0.2%14.1%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.1%
0.2%13.0%
0.2%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.8%
0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.6%
<0.1%12.6%
0.1%12.6%
0.4%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.1%12.3%
0.1%12.2%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
0.3%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.3%
0.1%11.3%
0.3%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
1.0%10.3%
<0.1%10.1%
0.4%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
0.5%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
0.2%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
0.1%8.1%
0.4%8.0%
0.3%8.0%
0.3%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
0.3%7.1%
0.3%7.0%
<0.1%6.8%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.5%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
0.2%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07