UCF

UCFKnights

2-0 T2nd (0-0) in B12

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

6.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

UCFSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/28
vsJacksonville StJXST
W17-10
29/06
vsNorth Carolina A&TNCAT
W68-7
49/20
vsNorth CarolinaUNC
Win prob:75%
59/27
@Kansas StKSU
Win prob:28%
610/04
vsKansasKU
Win prob:47%
710/11
@CincinnatiCIN
Win prob:53%
810/18
vsWest VirginiaWVU
Win prob:69%
1011/01
@BaylorBAY
Win prob:40%
1111/07
vsHoustonHOU
Win prob:79%
1211/15
@Texas TechTTU
Win prob:40%
1311/22
vsOklahoma StOKST
Win prob:83%
1411/29
@BYUBYU
Win prob:30%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.1%
100.0%
8-1
1.7%
96.1%
7-2
7.5%
55.4%
6-3
18.5%
3.7%
5-4
27.6%
0%
4-5
25.3%
0%
3-6
14.1%
0%
2-7
4.4%
0%
1-8
0.8%
0%
0-9
0.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely UCF CCG Opponents

if UCF makes the CCG

Arizona StateArizona St
30.2%
TCUTCU
27.5%
Iowa StateIowa St
16.6%
KansasKansas
13.0%
BYUBYU
12.6%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFThis Week's Impact

Game
UCFCCG OddsAway
UCFCCG OddsHome
SamfordSAM@BaylorBAY
6.6%
(+0.1%)		6.6%
(-0.0%)
Northwestern StateNWST@CincinnatiCIN
6.8%
(+0.3%)		6.5%
(-0.0%)
Iowa StISU@Arkansas StARST
6.6%
(-0.0%)		6.6%
(+0.0%)
Kansas StKSU@ArizonaARIZ
6.5%
(-0.0%)		6.7%
(+0.1%)
Texas StTXST@Arizona StASU
6.5%
(-0.1%)		6.6%
(+0.1%)
UtahUTAH@WyomingWYO
6.6%
(+0.0%)		6.5%
(-0.0%)
Abilene ChristianACU@TCUTCU
6.6%
(+0.0%)		6.6%
(+0.0%)
ColoradoCOLO@HoustonHOU
6.4%
(-0.2%)		7.1%
(+0.6%)
PittsburghPITT@West VirginiaWVU
6.5%
(-0.1%)		6.7%
(+0.1%)
Oregon StORST@Texas TechTTU
6.7%
(+0.1%)		6.5%
(-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for UCF

SamfordSamfordCincinnatiCincinnatiArkansas StArkansas StateTexas StTexas StateAbilene ChristianAbilene ChristianHoustonHoustonOregon StOregon State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for UCF

HoustonHoustonWest VirginiaWest Virginia

CCG: 7.6% • Scenario: 15.0%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
UCF CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%
Any 1 loss
96.0%
1.3%
North Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas Tech
98.3%
0.2%
West Virginia
98.3%
<0.1%
Kansas St
96.7%
0.3%
Cincinnati
96.6%
<0.1%
Houston
96.4%
<0.1%
Kansas
95.1%
0.1%
BYU
94.1%
0.3%
Baylor
93.7%
0.2%
Any 2 losses
58.1%
6.0%
North CarolinaOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StWest Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaWest Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaTexas Tech
97.5%
<0.1%
BYUNorth Carolina
97.1%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth Carolina
96.8%
<0.1%
BaylorNorth Carolina
96.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorth Carolina
96.5%
<0.1%
KansasNorth Carolina
95.6%
<0.1%
HoustonNorth Carolina
91.7%
<0.1%
HoustonOklahoma St
87.5%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas Tech
80.0%
<0.1%
HoustonWest Virginia
80.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StTexas Tech
78.1%
<0.1%
Kansas StOklahoma St
76.6%
<0.1%
CincinnatiWest Virginia
73.0%
<0.1%
Texas TechWest Virginia
70.9%
<0.1%
BYUOklahoma St
69.6%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHouston
69.6%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnati
69.4%
0.2%
CincinnatiTexas Tech
68.5%
0.2%
CincinnatiOklahoma St
65.2%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma St
64.5%
<0.1%
BaylorHouston
64.4%
<0.1%
BaylorTexas Tech
62.2%
0.3%
CincinnatiKansas St
61.0%
0.3%
HoustonKansas St
58.8%
<0.1%
BYUHouston
57.4%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas
57.1%
0.1%
Kansas StWest Virginia
56.1%
0.1%
BaylorWest Virginia
55.6%
<0.1%
Kansas StTexas Tech
54.8%
0.4%
BYUTexas Tech
54.8%
0.4%
KansasTexas Tech
54.4%
0.2%
BaylorKansas
52.3%
0.2%
BYUKansas St
52.1%
0.7%
BaylorKansas St
51.5%
0.4%
HoustonKansas
51.2%
<0.1%
BYUBaylor
49.2%
0.4%
BYUWest Virginia
48.8%
0.1%
KansasKansas St
48.6%
0.3%
KansasOklahoma St
47.6%
<0.1%
BYUKansas
47.4%
0.3%
BYUCincinnati
46.3%
0.2%
KansasWest Virginia
46.3%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
9.7%
15.6%
North CarolinaOklahoma StWest Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonNorth Carolina
86.7%
<0.1%
HoustonNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
81.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
80.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
78.6%
<0.1%
KansasNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
77.8%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
72.0%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasNorth Carolina
71.4%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
69.7%
<0.1%
North CarolinaOklahoma StTexas Tech
68.8%
<0.1%
BYUNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
68.4%
<0.1%
BaylorNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
66.7%
<0.1%
North CarolinaTexas TechWest Virginia
66.7%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonNorth Carolina
66.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
66.7%
<0.1%
KansasNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
66.7%
<0.1%
HoustonNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
66.7%
<0.1%
BaylorNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
63.1%
<0.1%
BaylorNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
60.0%
<0.1%
KansasNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
57.1%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StNorth Carolina
56.8%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StNorth Carolina
56.5%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
55.7%
0.1%
BYUCincinnatiNorth Carolina
55.7%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorNorth Carolina
55.4%
0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiNorth Carolina
54.2%
<0.1%
BYUNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
52.1%
0.1%
CincinnatiKansasNorth Carolina
51.4%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StNorth Carolina
49.0%
0.3%
BaylorKansasNorth Carolina
48.6%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StNorth Carolina
48.5%
0.1%
KansasKansas StNorth Carolina
47.7%
<0.1%
BYUNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
46.9%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonNorth Carolina
46.2%
<0.1%
BYUKansasNorth Carolina
44.0%
0.1%
BaylorHoustonWest Virginia
25.0%
<0.1%
HoustonOklahoma StTexas Tech
20.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma StWest Virginia
16.7%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StTexas Tech
15.4%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StTexas TechWest Virginia
15.4%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas TechWest Virginia
13.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonWest Virginia
11.1%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StOklahoma St
10.0%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasWest Virginia
9.6%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonOklahoma St
9.5%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiHouston
9.1%
<0.1%
BYUOklahoma StWest Virginia
9.1%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiOklahoma St
8.9%
<0.1%
BaylorTexas TechWest Virginia
8.7%
0.1%
BaylorHoustonKansas
8.5%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiOklahoma St
8.3%
<0.1%
KansasOklahoma StWest Virginia
8.3%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiHouston
7.3%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonTexas Tech
7.1%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasWest Virginia
7.1%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonKansas St
7.1%
0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiTexas Tech
6.5%
0.2%
BYUOklahoma StTexas Tech
6.4%
<0.1%
CincinnatiTexas TechWest Virginia
6.3%
<0.1%
KansasKansas StOklahoma St
6.3%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonTexas Tech
6.3%
0.1%
HoustonKansasKansas St
5.9%
0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonKansas
5.9%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StOklahoma St
5.8%
0.1%
BYUHoustonKansas St
5.3%
0.2%
BaylorKansasOklahoma St
5.1%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonKansas
5.1%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StWest Virginia
5.1%
<0.1%
KansasTexas TechWest Virginia
5.1%
0.1%
Kansas StOklahoma StTexas Tech
5.1%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasTexas Tech
4.9%
<0.1%
KansasOklahoma StTexas Tech
4.9%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonKansas St
4.8%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiKansas St
4.8%
0.4%
CincinnatiKansas StWest Virginia
4.7%
0.1%
BYUBaylorOklahoma St
4.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonTexas Tech
4.7%
<0.1%
Kansas StTexas TechWest Virginia
4.6%
0.2%
BYUHoustonWest Virginia
4.5%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiTexas Tech
4.5%
0.4%
BYUTexas TechWest Virginia
4.3%
0.2%
BYUCincinnatiKansas St
4.3%
0.6%
BaylorKansas StOklahoma St
4.3%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorCincinnati
4.2%
0.4%
CincinnatiKansasWest Virginia
4.2%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StOklahoma St
4.1%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorWest Virginia
4.0%
0.1%
Kansas StOklahoma StWest Virginia
4.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansasTexas Tech
3.9%
0.2%
HoustonKansas StTexas Tech
3.9%
0.1%
BYUKansasWest Virginia
3.8%
0.1%
BYUKansasOklahoma St
3.7%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StWest Virginia
3.7%
0.2%
BYUCincinnatiKansas
3.6%
0.3%
BYUBaylorHouston
3.5%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiKansas
3.1%
0.2%
BYUBaylorTexas Tech
3.0%
0.6%
BaylorKansasTexas Tech
3.0%
0.3%
BYUKansasKansas St
2.9%
0.8%
CincinnatiKansas StTexas Tech
2.7%
0.4%
CincinnatiKansasKansas St
2.6%
0.3%
BaylorKansas StTexas Tech
2.6%
0.7%
BYUKansasTexas Tech
2.5%
0.4%
BYUBaylorKansas St
2.4%
1.0%
KansasKansas StTexas Tech
2.2%
0.5%
BYUBaylorKansas
2.1%
0.4%
BYUKansas StTexas Tech
1.7%
1.1%
BYUCincinnatiWest Virginia
1.7%
0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiWest Virginia
1.6%
<0.1%
KansasKansas StWest Virginia
1.4%
0.1%
BaylorKansasKansas St
1.4%
0.5%
BYUKansas StWest Virginia
1.3%
0.3%
Any 4 losses
4.2%
4.5%
BaylorHoustonNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
40.0%
<0.1%
HoustonNorth CarolinaTexas TechWest Virginia
25.0%
<0.1%
BYUNorth CarolinaOklahoma StWest Virginia
18.2%
<0.1%
KansasNorth CarolinaOklahoma StWest Virginia
16.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
15.4%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
14.3%
<0.1%
BYUNorth CarolinaOklahoma StTexas Tech
13.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
13.3%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
12.5%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
12.5%
<0.1%
KansasNorth CarolinaTexas TechWest Virginia
11.8%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorth CarolinaTexas TechWest Virginia
11.1%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
10.7%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
10.7%
0.1%
BaylorKansasNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
10.5%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonKansas StNorth Carolina
10.0%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
9.6%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
9.3%
<0.1%
BYUKansasNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
9.1%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiKansasNorth Carolina
9.0%
<0.1%
BYUNorth CarolinaTexas TechWest Virginia
8.8%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth CarolinaOklahoma StWest Virginia
8.3%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
8.3%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
7.5%
<0.1%
KansasKansas StNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
7.1%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
6.7%
<0.1%
KansasNorth CarolinaOklahoma StTexas Tech
6.7%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonKansas StNorth Carolina
6.7%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiHoustonNorth Carolina
6.7%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
6.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonKansasNorth Carolina
6.3%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorCincinnatiNorth Carolina
6.1%
0.1%
BaylorNorth CarolinaTexas TechWest Virginia
6.1%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
5.9%
<0.1%
BaylorNorth CarolinaOklahoma StTexas Tech
5.6%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonKansasNorth Carolina
5.6%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
5.3%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiHoustonNorth Carolina
5.0%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
5.0%
0.1%
BaylorKansas StNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
4.6%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
4.5%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonKansasNorth Carolina
4.5%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
4.5%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
4.4%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
4.4%
0.2%
BaylorCincinnatiKansasNorth Carolina
4.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansasNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
4.2%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
4.0%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasKansas StNorth Carolina
3.6%
0.2%
BYUBaylorKansas StNorth Carolina
3.1%
0.4%
BYUBaylorHoustonNorth Carolina
3.1%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
3.0%
0.1%
BYUKansas StNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
2.8%
0.1%
Kansas StNorth CarolinaOklahoma StTexas Tech
2.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansasKansas StNorth Carolina
2.6%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiKansas StNorth Carolina
2.5%
0.2%
BYUKansas StNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
2.2%
0.4%
BaylorCincinnatiKansas StNorth Carolina
2.2%
0.1%
BYUKansasNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
2.1%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth CarolinaTexas TechWest Virginia
1.8%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
1.8%
0.2%
KansasKansas StNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
1.6%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonKansas StNorth Carolina
1.5%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorKansasNorth Carolina
1.5%
0.1%
BYUKansasNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
1.4%
0.1%
KansasKansas StNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
1.1%
0.2%
BYUKansasKansas StNorth Carolina
0.8%
0.3%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com