Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-07
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Iowa StateISU | 1-0 | 3-0 | 22.7% | |
| T2 |  Arizona StateASU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 35.5% | |
| T2 |  TCUTCU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 35.3% | |
| T2 |  KansasKU | 0-0 | 2-1 | 22.4% | |
| T2 |  BYUBYU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 19.4% | |
| T2 |  UtahUTAH | 0-0 | 2-0 | 15.6% | |
| T2 |  Kansas StateKSU | 0-1 | 1-2 | 11.9% | |
| T2 |  ColoradoCOLO | 0-0 | 1-1 | 10.5% | |
| T2 |  BaylorBAY | 0-0 | 1-1 | 9.5% | |
| T2 |  Texas TechTTU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 6.7% | |
| T2 |  UCFUCF | 0-0 | 2-0 | 6.6% | |
| T2 |  CincinnatiCIN | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1.8% | |
| T2 |  ArizonaARIZ | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1.0% | |
| T2 |  West VirginiaWVU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.8% | |
| T2 |  HoustonHOU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0.3% | |
| T2 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 0-0 | 1-1 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 35.5%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 35.8% (+0.2%) | 35.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 35.4% (-0.1%) | 35.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 35.6% (+0.0%) | 35.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 35.6% (+0.1%) | 35.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 35.4% (-0.2%) | 35.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 35.5% (-0.1%) | 35.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 35.3% (-0.3%) | 35.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 35.1% (-0.4%) | 36.7% (+1.2%) | |
| 35.8% (+0.2%) | 35.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 35.4% (-0.1%) | 35.6% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Samford
Northwestern State
Arkansas State
WyomingHouston
Oregon StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
HoustonCCG: 36.7% • Scenario: 26.0%
Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona StateASU | 100% | 99.0% | 72.4% | 10.6% | <0.1% | 35.5% |
| TCUTCU | 100% | 99.3% | 74.6% | 12.2% | <0.1% | 35.3% |
| Iowa StateISU | 100% | 99.4% | 77.2% | 13.5% | <0.1% | 22.7% |
| KansasKU | 99.9% | 97.1% | 59.6% | 5.8% | - | 22.4% |
| BYUBYU | 100% | 98.6% | 70.7% | 10.3% | <0.1% | 19.4% |
| UtahUTAH | 100% | 99.0% | 74.3% | 15.1% | <0.1% | 15.6% |
| Kansas StateKSU | - | 99.2% | 73.4% | 14.8% | <0.1% | 11.9% |
| ColoradoCOLO | 100% | 99.3% | 74.9% | 10.3% | <0.1% | 10.5% |
| BaylorBAY | 100% | 98.1% | 62.0% | 5.5% | - | 9.5% |
| Texas TechTTU | 100% | 97.9% | 64.2% | 5.9% | <0.1% | 6.7% |
| UCFUCF | 100% | 96.1% | 55.4% | 3.7% | - | 6.6% |
| CincinnatiCIN | 100% | 99.3% | 72.0% | 11.3% | <0.1% | 1.8% |
| ArizonaARIZ | 100% | 98.0% | 67.8% | 7.1% | - | 1.0% |
| West VirginiaWVU | 100% | 100% | 81.8% | 16.9% | <0.1% | 0.8% |
| HoustonHOU | 100% | 95.2% | 69.7% | 6.6% | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | 100% | 100% | 63.3% | 5.5% | - | <0.1% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona StateASU(0-0) | 2.4% | 12.1% | 25.0% | 28.8% | 20.2% | 8.7% | 2.4% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 6.1 |
| TCUTCU(0-0) | 2.2% | 11.4% | 24.4% | 28.8% | 20.7% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 6.0 |
| KansasKU(0-0) | 1.3% | 7.9% | 19.8% | 28.2% | 24.1% | 13.0% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.7 |
| Iowa StateISU(1-0) | 0.7% | 5.4% | 16.7% | 27.8% | 27.2% | 15.7% | 5.4% | 1.0% | <0.1% | - | 5.5 |
| BYUBYU(0-0) | 0.8% | 5.3% | 15.3% | 25.2% | 25.9% | 17.4% | 7.6% | 2.0% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 5.3 |
| UtahUTAH(0-0) | 0.4% | 3.4% | 11.4% | 22.2% | 26.9% | 21.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 5.0 |
| Kansas StateKSU(0-1) | - | 1.6% | 9.6% | 22.3% | 29.1% | 22.9% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| BaylorBAY(0-0) | 0.3% | 2.3% | 9.4% | 20.7% | 27.6% | 23.2% | 12.0% | 3.9% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| ColoradoCOLO(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.1% | 8.3% | 19.3% | 26.9% | 24.1% | 13.5% | 4.7% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| UCFUCF(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.7% | 7.5% | 18.5% | 27.6% | 25.3% | 14.1% | 4.4% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| Texas TechTTU(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.4% | 6.5% | 17.2% | 26.6% | 26.0% | 15.5% | 5.5% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| CincinnatiCIN(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 5.9% | 15.6% | 26.1% | 27.2% | 17.1% | 5.9% | 0.8% | 3.5 |
| ArizonaARIZ(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 4.3% | 13.0% | 24.1% | 28.7% | 20.4% | 7.5% | 1.1% | 3.3 |
| West VirginiaWVU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.5% | 8.6% | 19.6% | 28.5% | 25.1% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 2.9 |
| HoustonHOU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 6.1% | 16.6% | 27.4% | 28.3% | 16.2% | 3.7% | 2.6 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.5% | 11.5% | 24.0% | 31.1% | 22.6% | 6.7% | 2.2 |
Data from 2025-09-07