Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
22.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W31-7 | |
| 1 | 8/29 | W46-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L31-42 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:78% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:77% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:53% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:51% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:53% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:88% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:68% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:44% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.3% | 99.9% |
| 8-1 | 7.9% | 97.1% |
| 7-2 | 19.8% | 59.6% |
| 6-3 | 28.2% | 5.8% |
| 5-4 | 24.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 13.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 4.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 22.7% (+0.2%) | 22.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 22.2% (-0.2%) | 22.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.3% (-0.1%) | 22.9% (+0.5%) | |
| 22.5% (+0.1%) | 22.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 22.4% (-0.1%) | 22.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.5% (+0.0%) | 22.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 22.5% (+0.1%) | 22.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 22.2% (-0.3%) | 23.2% (+0.8%) | |
| 22.4% (-0.0%) | 22.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.5% (+0.1%) | 22.4% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Samford
Northwestern State
Kansas State
Texas State
Abilene Christian
Oregon StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
HoustonCCG: 23.2% • Scenario: 26.0%
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.9%
1.3%Any 1 loss
97.1%
7.9%
99.4%
0.2%
99.0%
0.4%
98.1%
1.3%98.1%
1.2%
97.9%
1.2%
96.6%
0.6%
96.6%
0.4%
95.7%
1.0%
95.7%
1.8%Any 2 losses
59.6%
19.8%85.3%
0.2%78.8%
0.1%76.1%
<0.1%76.0%
0.2%75.5%
<0.1%72.8%
0.1%72.2%
0.3%71.9%
0.2%71.7%
0.6%71.2%
0.4%70.7%
0.1%69.9%
0.7%69.7%
0.4%68.8%
0.1%68.5%
0.3%68.0%
0.2%68.0%
0.1%65.9%
1.1%65.9%
1.1%65.1%
0.3%64.7%
0.5%62.6%
0.4%62.1%
0.3%61.9%
0.5%61.8%
1.1%60.3%
0.9%60.1%
0.3%57.5%
0.9%56.0%
1.5%54.4%
0.8%53.0%
0.8%52.7%
0.5%52.6%
0.5%52.6%
1.6%48.8%
1.5%42.4%
1.2%Any 3 losses
5.8%
28.2%25.0%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%14.5%
0.1%14.0%
0.5%13.6%
0.1%13.4%
<0.1%12.7%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.1%12.4%
0.4%12.1%
0.1%11.6%
0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
0.4%9.8%
<0.1%9.6%
0.1%9.2%
0.2%9.2%
0.5%8.8%
0.3%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
0.3%8.3%
0.2%8.3%
0.2%8.3%
0.1%7.4%
0.5%7.3%
0.3%7.3%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.3%7.0%
0.3%6.8%
0.8%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
0.6%6.7%
0.8%6.6%
0.3%6.6%
0.1%6.4%
0.3%6.3%
0.7%6.3%
0.2%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
0.2%6.3%
0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.6%
0.1%5.5%
1.0%5.4%
0.3%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.5%4.8%
0.7%4.8%
0.5%4.8%
1.5%4.6%
0.2%4.5%
0.2%4.5%
1.1%4.4%
0.3%4.3%
0.4%4.3%
0.4%4.1%
0.5%4.0%
0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.7%
0.4%3.5%
1.2%3.5%
0.7%3.4%
0.4%3.4%
0.4%3.1%
0.3%2.9%
0.4%2.9%
1.4%2.6%
1.3%2.4%
0.6%2.3%
0.8%1.8%
1.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07