LSU

LSUTigers

2-0 T2nd (0-0) in SEC

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

6.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

LSUSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/30
@ClemsonCLEM
W17-10
29/06
vsLouisiana TechLT
W23-7
39/13
vsFloridaFLA
Win prob:65%
49/20
vsSE LouisianaSELA
Win prob:90%
59/27
@MississippiMISS
Win prob:18%
710/11
vsSouth CarolinaSC
Win prob:58%
810/18
@VanderbiltVAN
Win prob:74%
910/25
vsTexas A&MTA&M
Win prob:62%
1111/08
@AlabamaALA
Win prob:39%
1211/15
vsArkansasARK
Win prob:77%
1311/22
vsWKUWKU
Win prob:88%
1411/29
@OklahomaOU
Win prob:54%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

LSURecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.5%
100.0%
7-1
4.8%
74.2%
6-2
16.3%
13.9%
5-3
28.2%
0.1%
4-4
27.5%
0%
3-5
16.1%
0%
2-6
5.5%
0%
1-7
1.0%
0%
0-8
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely LSU CCG Opponents

if LSU makes the CCG

GeorgiaGeorgia
63.4%
Ole MissMississippi
19.4%
TexasTexas
8.9%
TennesseeTennessee
6.0%
AlabamaAlabama
2.3%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

LSUThis Week's Impact

Game
LSUCCG OddsAway
LSUCCG OddsHome
ArkansasARK@MississippiMISS
9.0%
(+2.6%)		6.1%
(-0.2%)
FloridaFLA@LSULSU
1.3%
(-5.1%)		9.1%
(+2.7%)
South AlabamaUSA@AuburnAUB
6.4%
(+0.0%)		6.3%
(-0.0%)
E MichiganEMU@KentuckyUK
6.4%
(+0.1%)		6.3%
(-0.0%)
VanderbiltVAN@South CarolinaSC
6.8%
(+0.4%)		6.3%
(-0.1%)
LouisianaUL@MissouriMIZ
6.3%
(-0.1%)		6.3%
(+0.0%)
UTEPUTEP@TexasTEX
6.0%
(-0.4%)		6.3%
(+0.0%)
Alcorn StateALCN@Mississippi StMSST
6.3%
(-0.1%)		6.3%
(+0.0%)
WisconsinWIS@AlabamaALA
6.5%
(+0.2%)		6.3%
(-0.0%)
OklahomaOU@TempleTEM
6.4%
(+0.1%)		6.0%
(-0.3%)
Texas A&MTA&M@Notre DameND
5.9%
(-0.5%)		6.4%
(+0.0%)
GeorgiaUGA@TennesseeTENN
6.2%
(-0.2%)		6.9%
(+0.6%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

LSULoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
LSU CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.4%
Any 1 loss
74.5%
3.8%
WKU
100.0%
<0.1%
SE Louisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
South Carolina
90.6%
0.3%
Alabama
83.6%
0.6%
Vanderbilt
81.5%
0.1%
Texas A&M
78.3%
0.3%
Oklahoma
73.3%
0.3%
Arkansas
72.0%
0.1%
Mississippi
67.9%
1.8%
Florida
67.6%
0.2%
Any 2 losses
18.1%
13.9%
SE LouisianaWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
SE LouisianaSouth Carolina
97.3%
<0.1%
South CarolinaWKU
94.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaWKU
87.5%
<0.1%
VanderbiltWKU
85.7%
<0.1%
OklahomaWKU
85.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasSE Louisiana
84.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaSE Louisiana
84.1%
<0.1%
ArkansasWKU
83.3%
<0.1%
SE LouisianaVanderbilt
82.3%
<0.1%
Texas A&MWKU
80.0%
<0.1%
SE LouisianaTexas A&M
75.8%
<0.1%
OklahomaSE Louisiana
75.7%
<0.1%
FloridaWKU
71.4%
<0.1%
MississippiSE Louisiana
68.7%
0.2%
MississippiWKU
65.5%
0.3%
FloridaSE Louisiana
56.0%
<0.1%
South CarolinaVanderbilt
32.0%
0.1%
Texas A&MVanderbilt
24.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasVanderbilt
23.4%
<0.1%
FloridaVanderbilt
23.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaVanderbilt
22.8%
0.2%
AlabamaSouth Carolina
22.2%
0.5%
AlabamaTexas A&M
21.8%
0.4%
South CarolinaTexas A&M
21.6%
0.2%
ArkansasSouth Carolina
20.2%
<0.1%
OklahomaTexas A&M
20.2%
0.2%
ArkansasFlorida
20.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasTexas A&M
20.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasOklahoma
19.4%
<0.1%
FloridaTexas A&M
18.8%
0.1%
OklahomaSouth Carolina
18.4%
0.3%
FloridaSouth Carolina
17.6%
0.1%
AlabamaArkansas
16.2%
0.2%
AlabamaOklahoma
16.2%
0.6%
MississippiVanderbilt
15.3%
0.7%
OklahomaVanderbilt
13.9%
0.1%
AlabamaFlorida
13.9%
0.3%
MississippiTexas A&M
13.3%
1.1%
MississippiSouth Carolina
12.9%
1.3%
FloridaOklahoma
12.9%
0.2%
AlabamaMississippi
12.3%
2.9%
ArkansasMississippi
10.8%
0.5%
MississippiOklahoma
8.4%
1.5%
FloridaMississippi
7.5%
0.9%
Any 3 losses
12.6%
4.0%
SE LouisianaVanderbiltWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
SE LouisianaTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasSE LouisianaWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
OklahomaSE LouisianaWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaSE LouisianaWKU
94.4%
<0.1%
MississippiSE LouisianaWKU
83.9%
<0.1%
SE LouisianaSouth CarolinaWKU
75.0%
<0.1%
FloridaSE LouisianaWKU
66.7%
<0.1%
SE LouisianaSouth CarolinaTexas A&M
41.2%
<0.1%
Texas A&MVanderbiltWKU
38.5%
<0.1%
ArkansasSE LouisianaVanderbilt
37.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaVanderbiltWKU
37.1%
<0.1%
SE LouisianaSouth CarolinaVanderbilt
36.4%
<0.1%
SE LouisianaTexas A&MVanderbilt
33.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasSE LouisianaTexas A&M
28.6%
<0.1%
OklahomaSE LouisianaTexas A&M
28.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaTexas A&MWKU
28.3%
<0.1%
FloridaOklahomaWKU
26.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasSE Louisiana
25.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasWKU
25.0%
<0.1%
South CarolinaVanderbiltWKU
25.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaSE LouisianaTexas A&M
22.9%
<0.1%
OklahomaVanderbiltWKU
21.4%
<0.1%
AlabamaSE LouisianaSouth Carolina
20.3%
<0.1%
OklahomaSE LouisianaVanderbilt
20.0%
<0.1%
South CarolinaTexas A&MWKU
20.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaSE Louisiana
18.2%
<0.1%
AlabamaSE LouisianaVanderbilt
17.9%
<0.1%
MississippiSouth CarolinaWKU
17.4%
0.2%
ArkansasOklahomaSE Louisiana
16.7%
<0.1%
FloridaSouth CarolinaWKU
16.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaOklahomaWKU
15.4%
<0.1%
MississippiSE LouisianaVanderbilt
15.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasOklahomaWKU
15.0%
<0.1%
MississippiSE LouisianaSouth Carolina
14.7%
0.1%
AlabamaFloridaWKU
14.3%
<0.1%
FloridaVanderbiltWKU
14.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasVanderbiltWKU
14.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippiSE Louisiana
14.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaMississippiSE Louisiana
14.0%
0.3%
MississippiOklahomaWKU
12.8%
0.2%
MississippiVanderbiltWKU
12.7%
<0.1%
OklahomaTexas A&MWKU
12.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaSouth CarolinaWKU
12.5%
<0.1%
MississippiOklahomaSE Louisiana
11.9%
0.2%
AlabamaOklahomaSE Louisiana
11.8%
<0.1%
OklahomaSouth CarolinaWKU
11.6%
<0.1%
ArkansasSE LouisianaSouth Carolina
11.1%
<0.1%
AlabamaMississippiWKU
10.4%
0.4%
OklahomaSE LouisianaSouth Carolina
10.3%
<0.1%
MississippiSE LouisianaTexas A&M
10.0%
0.1%
FloridaMississippiWKU
9.3%
0.1%
MississippiTexas A&MWKU
9.3%
0.2%
FloridaOklahomaSE Louisiana
8.3%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiSE Louisiana
7.8%
0.1%
FloridaSE LouisianaVanderbilt
7.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasFloridaWKU
7.7%
<0.1%
FloridaSE LouisianaTexas A&M
7.1%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippiWKU
5.4%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasVanderbilt
3.5%
<0.1%
FloridaSouth CarolinaVanderbilt
1.7%
<0.1%
FloridaOklahomaVanderbilt
1.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippiVanderbilt
1.1%
0.2%
AlabamaArkansasFlorida
1.0%
0.1%
AlabamaArkansasOklahoma
0.6%
0.2%
AlabamaSouth CarolinaVanderbilt
0.6%
0.2%
Any 4 losses
5.3%
0.5%
ArkansasSE LouisianaTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaSE LouisianaSouth CarolinaWKU
50.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaSE LouisianaTexas A&MWKU
50.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaSE LouisianaVanderbiltWKU
50.0%
<0.1%
OklahomaSE LouisianaTexas A&MWKU
50.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippiSE LouisianaWKU
40.0%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiSE LouisianaWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasSE LouisianaWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
FloridaSE LouisianaTexas A&MWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaSE LouisianaWKU
22.2%
<0.1%
AlabamaSE LouisianaSouth CarolinaWKU
12.5%
<0.1%
MississippiOklahomaSE LouisianaWKU
12.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaMississippiSE LouisianaWKU
11.9%
<0.1%
MississippiSE LouisianaSouth CarolinaWKU
9.1%
<0.1%
AlabamaOklahomaSE LouisianaWKU
7.1%
<0.1%
OklahomaSouth CarolinaTexas A&MWKU
5.0%
<0.1%
FloridaOklahomaSE LouisianaSouth Carolina
4.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasMississippiSE Louisiana
1.0%
0.1%
AlabamaMississippiSE LouisianaTexas A&M
0.5%
0.2%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

LSUCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com