American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-14

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

1NavyNAVY2-03-029.5%
T2MemphisMEM0-03-046.0%
T2TulaneTULN0-03-042.9%
T2ArmyARMY0-01-132.1%
T2South FloridaUSF0-02-125.9%
T2UT San AntonioUTSA0-01-213.6%
T2North TexasUNT0-03-04.7%
T2East CarolinaECU0-02-13.9%
T2TempleTEM0-02-10.5%
T2UABUAB0-12-10.4%
T2RiceRICE0-02-10.3%
T2FL AtlanticFAU0-01-20.1%
T2CharlotteCLT0-01-2<0.1%
T2TulsaTLSA0-11-2-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

114.5%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
29.5%
ArmyARMY
vs
MEMMemphis
38.3%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
48.1%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
58.1%
ArmyARMY
vs
TULNTulane
67.8%
MemphisMEM
vs
USFSouth Florida
76.6%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
86.0%
ArmyARMY
vs
NAVYNavy
94.6%
ArmyARMY
vs
USFSouth Florida
103.8%
NavyNAVY
vs
USFSouth Florida
113.6%
MemphisMEM
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
123.2%
TulaneTULN
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
132.1%
ArmyARMY
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
142.1%
South FloridaUSF
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
151.9%
NavyNAVY
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 46.0%
Game
MemphisCCG OddsAway
MemphisCCG OddsHome
North TexasUNT@ArmyARMY
48.1%
(+2.1%)		45.5%
(-0.5%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@Colorado StCSU
46.1%
(+0.1%)		45.9%
(-0.1%)
TulsaTLSA@Oklahoma StOKST
45.8%
(-0.2%)		46.0%
(+0.1%)
South Carolina StateSCST@South FloridaUSF
46.1%
(+0.1%)		46.0%
(-0.0%)
RiceRICE@CharlotteCLT
47.1%
(+1.1%)		44.8%
(-1.2%)
BYUBYU@East CarolinaECU
46.0%
(+0.0%)		45.9%
(-0.1%)
TempleTEM@Georgia TechGT
46.8%
(+0.8%)		45.9%
(-0.1%)
UABUAB@TennesseeTENN
45.5%
(-0.5%)		46.0%
(+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@MississippiMISS
45.9%
(-0.1%)		46.0%
(+0.0%)
ArkansasARK@MemphisMEM
46.0%
(-0.0%)		46.0%
(+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Memphis

North TexasNorth TexasUT San AntonioUTSATulsaTulsaSouth Carolina StateSouth Carolina StateUABUAB

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Memphis

RiceRice

CCG: 47.1% • Scenario: 52.1%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-3Overall
MemphisMEM--100%-94.3%-29.4%-0.2%46.0%
TulaneTULN--100%-88.2%-16.5%-0.1%42.9%
ArmyARMY100%76.5%-31.7%-4.9%-<0.1%-32.1%
NavyNAVY100%79.7%-40.3%-5.3%-<0.1%-29.5%
South FloridaUSF--100%-87.9%-21.9%-0.2%25.9%
UT San AntonioUTSA--100%-92.8%-33.4%-0.3%13.6%
North TexasUNT--100%-87.3%-24.7%-0.1%4.7%
East CarolinaECU--100%-88.0%-14.9%-<0.1%3.9%
TempleTEM--100%-89.8%-32.9%-0.2%0.5%
UABUAB----93.5%-31.1%-0.1%0.4%
RiceRICE--100%-92.1%-24.0%-0.2%0.3%
FL AtlanticFAU----81.8%-31.0%-0.4%0.1%
CharlotteCLT----100%-36.9%-0.4%<0.1%
TulsaTLSA----------

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-70-8Avg Wins
ArmyARMY(0-0)5.0%20.4%0.0%32.2%0.0%26.5%0.0%12.2%0.0%3.2%0.0%0.5%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.7
NavyNAVY(2-0)2.8%15.5%0.0%31.4%0.0%30.8%0.0%15.2%0.0%3.9%0.0%0.5%0.0%<0.1%0.0%--6.5
TulaneTULN(0-0)-0.0%10.1%0.0%30.8%0.0%34.6%0.0%18.5%0.0%5.2%0.0%0.8%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%6.2
MemphisMEM(0-0)-0.0%9.7%0.0%28.2%0.0%32.8%0.0%20.2%0.0%7.3%0.0%1.5%0.0%0.2%<0.1%0.0%6.1
South FloridaUSF(0-0)-0.0%3.5%0.0%17.4%0.0%32.1%0.0%28.8%0.0%13.9%0.0%3.7%0.0%0.5%<0.1%0.0%5.5
UT San AntonioUTSA(0-0)-0.0%0.9%0.0%6.6%0.0%19.4%0.0%29.5%0.0%26.0%0.0%13.2%0.0%3.8%0.6%<0.1%4.7
East CarolinaECU(0-0)-0.0%0.2%0.0%2.3%0.0%11.1%0.0%26.4%0.0%32.5%0.0%20.2%0.0%6.3%0.8%<0.1%4.2
North TexasUNT(0-0)-0.0%0.2%0.0%2.3%0.0%10.1%0.0%22.5%0.0%29.4%0.0%22.7%0.0%10.1%2.4%0.2%4.0
UABUAB(0-1)---0.0%<0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%6.6%0.0%20.0%0.0%31.9%0.0%27.2%11.4%1.7%2.8
TempleTEM(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%6.0%0.0%17.7%0.0%30.6%0.0%28.9%13.3%2.1%2.7
RiceRICE(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.9%0.0%5.1%0.0%16.5%0.0%30.0%0.0%29.8%14.7%2.8%2.6
FL AtlanticFAU(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%2.6%0.0%11.9%0.0%28.5%0.0%35.1%18.7%2.8%2.4
CharlotteCLT(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.9%0.0%5.2%0.0%18.0%0.0%33.7%31.0%11.1%1.8
TulsaTLSA(0-1)---0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%3.0%0.0%16.4%41.0%39.3%0.8

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com