Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-26 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W72-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L41-44 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:96% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:86% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:75% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:28% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:74% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:97% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:62% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 5.4% | 66.3% |
| 6-2 | 24.4% | 7.0% |
| 5-3 | 35.5% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 23.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 8.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1% (-0.2%) | 5.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 5.3% (-0.0%) | 5.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.2% (-0.1%) | 5.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 5.4% (+0.1%) | 5.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.2% (-0.1%) | 5.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.8% (-0.5%) | 5.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.9% (-0.4%) | 5.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.4% (+0.1%) | 5.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 5.4% (+0.1%) | 5.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.2% (-0.1%) | 5.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Mississippi State
SE Louisiana
UAB
Sam Houston
ArkansasCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Mississippi StateTennessee
Ole Miss
VanderbiltCCG: 5.6% • Scenario: 42.4%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
66.5%
5.1%Any 1 loss
7.8%
23.1%67.5%
0.2%
59.4%
0.1%13.5%
0.9%
11.8%
1.4%10.8%
0.8%
7.9%
3.1%6.8%
1.7%
5.8%
13.0%
4.9%
1.8%Any 2 losses
7.5%
1.6%33.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.2%
0.1%8.4%
0.4%8.3%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.4%
0.5%4.5%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14