Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
39.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W63-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W30-23 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W41-35 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:87% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:80% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:92% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:24% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:75% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:81% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:90% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:86% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:92% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 9.0% | 99.8% |
| 7-1 | 38.8% | 67.8% |
| 6-2 | 35.4% | 13.0% |
| 5-3 | 14.0% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 40.6% (+0.7%) | 39.1% (-0.8%) | |
| 39.5% (-0.3%) | 40.1% (+0.2%) | |
| 39.9% (+0.0%) | 39.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.3% (+0.4%) | 39.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.6% (+0.7%) | 39.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.5% (+0.6%) | 39.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 38.9% (-1.0%) | 39.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 39.9% (+0.0%) | 39.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.0% (+0.1%) | 39.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 39.0% (-0.8%) | 39.9% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Northern Illinois
SE Louisiana
UAB
Sam HoustonCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
South Carolina
TexasCCG: 40.6% • Scenario: 50.8%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.8%
6.5%Any 1 loss
69.9%
30.1%
99.9%
0.9%
99.9%
0.7%
99.8%
0.6%
93.3%
2.2%92.8%
1.5%
88.1%
1.6%
84.1%
0.5%
82.5%
1.1%
60.2%
20.9%Any 2 losses
29.0%
35.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.1%96.0%
0.2%93.1%
0.2%92.8%
0.2%92.5%
0.1%92.4%
0.1%91.3%
0.3%90.6%
0.2%90.3%
0.2%88.9%
0.2%86.5%
<0.1%83.9%
0.1%82.2%
0.1%80.9%
0.1%79.4%
0.1%76.8%
<0.1%62.4%
3.1%61.5%
2.4%61.5%
1.9%35.7%
0.1%32.0%
0.2%30.7%
0.1%29.6%
0.5%28.8%
0.3%26.7%
0.2%25.2%
0.1%24.7%
0.4%23.1%
0.4%18.0%
0.6%14.6%
1.7%14.0%
5.0%11.2%
5.2%10.5%
3.5%9.3%
7.2%Any 3 losses
18.4%
10.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%60.5%
0.3%58.3%
0.4%55.9%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.5%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%16.0%
0.3%15.9%
0.4%15.6%
0.2%14.5%
<0.1%14.5%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
0.7%12.8%
0.6%12.7%
<0.1%12.7%
0.3%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.8%12.2%
0.4%11.6%
0.6%10.8%
0.5%9.5%
1.0%9.0%
0.4%8.8%
0.8%7.7%
0.6%0.7%
0.3%Any 4 losses
12.9%
1.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.8%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.5%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.1%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14