Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L27-30 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W24-21 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:82% | |
| 5 | 9/25 | Win prob:68% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:81% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:94% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:38% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:67% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:59% | |
| 12/13 | Win prob:59% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 5.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 20.4% | 76.5% |
| 7-2 | 32.2% | 31.7% |
| 6-3 | 26.5% | 4.9% |
| 5-4 | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 3.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 11.0% (-21.1%) | 36.8% (+4.7%) | |
| 32.2% (+0.1%) | 32.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 31.7% (-0.4%) | 32.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 31.6% (-0.5%) | 32.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 30.7% (-1.4%) | 33.7% (+1.6%) | |
| 32.1% (-0.0%) | 32.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 31.6% (-0.5%) | 32.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 32.8% (+0.7%) | 32.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 32.1% (+0.0%) | 32.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.1% (+0.0%) | 32.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Tulsa
East Carolina
Temple
UAB
TulaneCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ArmyCCG: 36.8% • Scenario: 81.7%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.3%Any 1 loss
79.3%
15.3%
100.0%
2.3%
100.0%
1.6%
83.8%
0.2%80.6%
0.8%80.6%
0.4%79.8%
1.6%78.0%
<0.1%
77.9%
2.3%
77.6%
0.8%64.2%
5.3%Any 2 losses
42.3%
28.4%100.0%
1.2%84.8%
<0.1%80.9%
0.5%80.9%
0.1%79.9%
0.3%79.7%
0.7%79.0%
0.1%78.5%
0.4%78.0%
1.1%77.2%
0.2%76.8%
1.6%76.6%
1.2%75.3%
0.3%74.5%
0.5%71.0%
<0.1%62.8%
3.6%62.5%
2.6%55.6%
<0.1%40.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
0.1%30.4%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%23.4%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.1%
0.4%16.7%
0.1%16.7%
0.2%15.4%
0.4%14.8%
0.6%14.6%
0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.3%
0.2%12.0%
<0.1%11.2%
<0.1%10.6%
1.0%10.2%
0.2%9.6%
0.6%9.5%
1.2%9.5%
0.4%8.7%
0.5%8.5%
2.5%7.8%
1.1%5.2%
3.7%Any 3 losses
20.6%
20.5%85.9%
<0.1%84.4%
0.1%79.1%
0.3%79.1%
0.5%77.4%
0.3%76.3%
0.8%74.2%
<0.1%62.3%
1.8%36.8%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.3%
0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%17.8%
0.3%17.1%
<0.1%16.9%
0.2%15.9%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.6%
0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.1%
0.3%15.1%
<0.1%14.8%
0.1%14.6%
0.3%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.2%
0.4%13.3%
0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
0.3%11.3%
0.4%11.1%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.1%
0.3%9.8%
0.6%9.8%
0.5%9.4%
0.4%9.3%
0.2%9.2%
0.8%9.1%
0.2%7.5%
0.8%7.4%
0.1%7.4%
0.9%7.1%
1.7%7.1%
0.2%6.5%
0.2%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
1.8%6.3%
1.2%6.2%
2.6%6.0%
0.6%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14