Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W14-12 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L9-35 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-17 | |
| 4 | 9/18 | Win prob:52% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:13% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:63% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:16% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:33% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:15% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:52% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:38% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:12% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 92.1% |
| 6-2 | 0.9% | 24.0% |
| 5-3 | 5.1% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 16.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 29.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 14.7% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 2.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.2%) | 0.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Tulsa
South Carolina State
Charlotte
BYU
UAB
Tulane
ArkansasCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
RiceCCG: 0.5% • Scenario: 52.1%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
85.7%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
85.7%
<0.1%
85.7%
<0.1%
75.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
35.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%
60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
19.7%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%33.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.3%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14