Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
29.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W52-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-24 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:87% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:73% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:77% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:89% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:63% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:2% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:33% | |
| 12/13 | Win prob:41% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.8% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 15.5% | 79.7% |
| 7-2 | 31.4% | 40.3% |
| 6-3 | 30.8% | 5.3% |
| 5-4 | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 3.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 34.6% (+5.1%) | 28.3% (-1.1%) | |
| 29.7% (+0.2%) | 29.1% (-0.3%) | |
| 30.2% (+0.7%) | 29.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 29.8% (+0.4%) | 29.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 31.0% (+1.5%) | 27.8% (-1.7%) | |
| 29.4% (-0.0%) | 29.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 29.8% (+0.3%) | 29.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 30.0% (+0.5%) | 29.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 29.4% (-0.0%) | 29.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 29.3% (-0.2%) | 29.6% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
North Texas
Tulsa
South Carolina State
Temple
UABCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
North TexasCCG: 34.6% • Scenario: 18.3%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
97.5%
2.3%
100.0%
2.0%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
88.9%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%
77.8%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%
71.4%
<0.1%
67.6%
0.1%Any 2 losses
79.7%
12.3%100.0%
2.8%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
0.3%87.5%
<0.1%85.8%
0.3%85.0%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%80.8%
1.2%80.3%
0.6%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
1.5%68.8%
4.3%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.9%
0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
46.1%
26.9%100.0%
1.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%89.2%
0.1%85.8%
0.4%83.7%
0.4%83.2%
<0.1%81.9%
0.2%81.8%
0.5%80.6%
0.8%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
1.7%69.2%
2.2%68.0%
<0.1%67.8%
0.6%67.0%
1.6%65.3%
6.0%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%21.2%
0.1%21.0%
0.2%16.6%
0.4%15.0%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
0.6%10.8%
0.2%10.5%
0.4%10.2%
0.2%8.6%
1.3%8.3%
0.5%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
1.0%7.9%
<0.1%7.0%
2.5%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.4%
3.2%2.2%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
18.9%
23.9%85.9%
0.2%84.3%
0.1%81.5%
0.3%79.9%
0.7%70.6%
0.8%66.3%
2.2%50.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%20.3%
0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.0%
0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.1%
0.5%15.2%
<0.1%14.6%
0.2%13.7%
0.4%13.6%
0.2%13.3%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.4%
0.2%10.4%
0.8%10.0%
0.2%9.6%
0.2%9.3%
0.7%8.6%
1.3%8.3%
0.1%8.1%
1.8%8.0%
0.9%7.9%
0.4%7.5%
0.3%7.5%
0.4%7.2%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
3.5%6.0%
1.0%3.9%
1.2%3.7%
4.7%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14