Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
42.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W23-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W33-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-27 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:13% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:96% | |
| 7 | 10/09 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:62% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:62% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:45% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 10.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 30.8% | 88.2% |
| 6-2 | 34.6% | 16.5% |
| 5-3 | 18.5% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 41.8% (-1.1%) | 43.1% (+0.2%) | |
| 42.8% (-0.1%) | 43.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 42.5% (-0.4%) | 43.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 43.6% (+0.7%) | 42.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 41.5% (-1.4%) | 44.4% (+1.5%) | |
| 43.0% (+0.1%) | 42.6% (-0.3%) | |
| 43.0% (+0.1%) | 42.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 43.5% (+0.6%) | 42.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 43.7% (+0.8%) | 42.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 43.3% (+0.4%) | 42.5% (-0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
North Texas
South Carolina State
UABTulaneCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CharlotteCCG: 44.4% • Scenario: 47.9%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.3%Any 1 loss
96.2%
12.7%
100.0%
8.7%98.6%
<0.1%
94.6%
0.2%
94.6%
0.3%
93.9%
0.1%
93.9%
<0.1%
92.2%
0.8%
85.7%
0.8%
83.1%
1.6%Any 2 losses
78.2%
31.2%100.0%
<0.1%96.6%
0.6%95.8%
0.4%94.7%
1.5%93.6%
1.9%93.2%
0.6%91.9%
5.3%85.5%
5.6%85.0%
10.9%63.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%27.4%
0.1%27.0%
0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.8%
0.1%23.8%
0.3%22.2%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.0%
<0.1%20.1%
0.2%19.7%
<0.1%19.1%
0.1%16.7%
0.3%16.5%
0.9%14.9%
<0.1%14.9%
0.5%13.9%
<0.1%8.6%
1.0%Any 3 losses
16.2%
30.5%52.4%
<0.1%45.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.2%
0.1%37.8%
<0.1%37.0%
0.1%35.9%
<0.1%33.6%
0.1%32.1%
0.3%31.0%
0.4%30.7%
0.3%28.5%
1.0%26.2%
0.4%24.9%
0.5%24.2%
0.2%22.4%
1.0%21.6%
1.1%21.1%
1.9%20.6%
0.3%20.4%
0.8%19.3%
0.6%18.9%
0.4%17.6%
<0.1%15.1%
2.3%14.5%
1.3%13.4%
3.3%13.4%
6.7%9.7%
7.0%3.6%
<0.1%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
1.9%
0.4%5.3%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14