Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W69-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:74% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:43% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:81% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:71% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:62% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:49% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:46% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:51% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:65% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:73% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.8% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 5.5% | 99.0% |
| 7-2 | 15.9% | 75.2% |
| 6-3 | 26.1% | 12.8% |
| 5-4 | 25.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 16.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 7.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.8% (+0.2%) | 21.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 23.1% (+1.5%) | 21.1% (-0.5%) | |
| 21.2% (-0.4%) | 21.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 21.7% (+0.1%) | 21.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 21.2% (-0.4%) | 21.9% (+0.3%) | |
| 21.6% (+0.0%) | 21.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 21.3% (-0.3%) | 21.9% (+0.4%) | |
| 21.7% (+0.1%) | 21.6% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
North Carolina
West Virginia
Tulsa
SMU
Texas Tech
East Carolina
Arizona State
WyomingCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
West VirginiaCCG: 23.1% • Scenario: 24.1%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.6%Any 1 loss
99.0%
4.3%100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%
99.9%
0.8%
99.5%
0.4%99.2%
0.7%
99.0%
0.6%
98.2%
0.2%
97.9%
0.4%
97.5%
0.6%Any 2 losses
77.8%
13.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.3%99.6%
0.3%99.2%
0.1%99.1%
0.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.6%
0.2%98.4%
0.3%93.2%
0.1%91.0%
0.1%90.5%
0.3%89.7%
0.4%87.9%
0.2%87.9%
<0.1%85.8%
0.1%84.4%
0.2%84.1%
0.3%82.4%
<0.1%82.1%
0.4%81.2%
0.3%79.9%
0.2%79.9%
1.0%79.0%
0.3%79.0%
0.5%78.1%
0.1%77.5%
0.1%77.4%
0.2%77.3%
<0.1%77.0%
0.2%77.0%
0.1%76.2%
0.1%76.1%
0.2%75.0%
0.4%74.9%
0.9%74.9%
0.2%73.5%
0.8%71.2%
0.3%69.9%
0.3%67.3%
0.4%67.2%
0.4%67.0%
0.8%65.7%
0.4%62.5%
0.6%59.7%
0.6%Any 3 losses
23.7%
23.4%100.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%89.5%
0.1%88.3%
0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.2%
0.1%81.7%
0.1%81.5%
<0.1%80.5%
<0.1%80.2%
0.1%79.1%
<0.1%78.1%
0.3%77.9%
<0.1%77.7%
0.1%77.5%
0.3%76.9%
<0.1%75.8%
0.2%73.7%
0.3%71.4%
<0.1%69.8%
<0.1%69.8%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%67.7%
0.2%67.0%
0.3%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
0.3%63.4%
0.2%62.8%
0.1%61.8%
0.1%26.8%
<0.1%26.7%
0.1%26.5%
0.2%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
<0.1%23.3%
0.1%22.8%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.6%
0.2%22.0%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.3%
0.5%21.1%
<0.1%20.4%
0.2%20.4%
0.4%19.8%
0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.7%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.1%
0.3%17.9%
0.1%17.7%
<0.1%17.2%
0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.8%
0.1%16.4%
0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.7%
0.2%15.6%
0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.5%
0.1%15.1%
0.5%15.0%
0.3%15.0%
0.1%15.0%
0.1%14.9%
0.2%14.7%
<0.1%14.2%
0.3%14.1%
0.3%13.9%
0.4%13.9%
0.3%13.7%
0.4%13.6%
0.3%13.4%
0.3%13.3%
0.2%13.1%
<0.1%13.1%
0.2%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
0.2%12.8%
0.4%12.5%
0.3%12.5%
0.3%12.4%
0.1%12.0%
0.2%11.5%
0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.4%
0.1%11.2%
1.1%11.1%
0.1%11.1%
0.3%10.9%
0.3%10.8%
0.3%10.8%
0.4%10.6%
0.2%10.4%
0.6%10.3%
0.1%10.0%
0.1%9.8%
0.2%9.8%
0.1%9.4%
0.1%9.4%
1.0%9.3%
0.3%9.0%
0.2%8.7%
0.2%8.6%
0.5%8.5%
0.5%7.8%
0.7%7.4%
0.5%7.4%
0.8%7.2%
0.4%5.7%
<0.1%5.4%
0.4%Any 4 losses
12.2%
7.1%31.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.0%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%19.0%
0.2%18.2%
<0.1%18.1%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.5%
0.1%14.7%
0.1%14.5%
0.1%14.5%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.2%
0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.8%
0.1%13.7%
0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.6%
0.2%12.2%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
0.1%11.4%
0.2%11.3%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
0.2%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
0.3%8.7%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.4%
0.4%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
0.3%7.9%
0.3%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14