Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
46.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:50% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:87% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:97% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:81% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:66% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:85% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:55% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:69% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:67% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 9.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 28.2% | 94.3% |
| 6-2 | 32.8% | 29.4% |
| 5-3 | 20.2% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 7.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 48.1% (+2.1%) | 45.5% (-0.5%) | |
| 46.1% (+0.1%) | 45.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 45.8% (-0.2%) | 46.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 46.1% (+0.1%) | 46.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 47.1% (+1.1%) | 44.8% (-1.2%) | |
| 46.0% (+0.0%) | 45.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 46.8% (+0.8%) | 45.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 45.5% (-0.5%) | 46.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 45.9% (-0.1%) | 46.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 46.0% (-0.0%) | 46.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
North Texas
UTSA
Tulsa
South Carolina State
UABCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
RiceCCG: 47.1% • Scenario: 52.1%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
4.9%Any 1 loss
95.7%
18.9%
100.0%
4.8%98.9%
0.9%98.6%
0.1%
98.2%
0.8%98.0%
1.1%
97.2%
2.2%
93.5%
2.6%
91.8%
2.3%
91.7%
4.1%Any 2 losses
59.3%
30.5%99.1%
0.7%98.6%
0.1%98.1%
1.1%98.0%
0.9%97.5%
2.1%93.6%
2.5%91.9%
4.1%91.6%
2.4%59.0%
0.1%57.3%
0.2%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.7%
0.2%53.0%
0.5%47.1%
0.3%45.4%
0.4%44.9%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%41.2%
0.1%40.8%
<0.1%36.5%
0.6%36.1%
0.5%34.9%
0.4%34.8%
0.4%33.3%
0.6%32.6%
1.2%32.5%
0.6%30.9%
1.1%30.3%
0.7%30.0%
0.9%28.4%
0.3%27.9%
1.8%22.5%
<0.1%20.1%
1.3%16.8%
2.1%16.6%
1.9%Any 3 losses
26.4%
18.3%72.4%
<0.1%62.0%
0.2%59.3%
0.2%57.0%
0.1%49.6%
0.4%49.6%
0.3%46.2%
0.5%43.8%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%41.3%
0.1%39.2%
0.5%35.9%
0.6%35.2%
0.4%35.1%
0.7%34.7%
0.5%34.2%
0.6%34.2%
0.4%33.8%
0.4%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
0.9%31.9%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.7%
1.1%29.8%
1.2%26.4%
1.8%18.7%
1.2%17.1%
2.1%15.5%
1.9%6.7%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.4%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.6%
0.5%0.6%
0.2%Any 4 losses
1.2%
1.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.3%0.8%
0.3%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14